Speech by Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, Third Plenary Session on "Asia-Pacific Security Architecture: Present and Future" on 31 Oct 2023

Introduction

尊敬的先生们女士们，大家上午好。非常荣幸能受中方之邀参加第十届北京香山论坛。在此，我想感谢中方的热情款待也祝贺中方成功举办第十届北京香山论坛。接下来，我用英语继续演讲。

Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of the Singapore Ministry of Defence and the Singapore Armed Forces, let me congratulate the China Association for Military Sciences and the China Institute for International Strategic Studies for hosting this 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum. It is an important event, especially in troubled times that we now have,and I wish continued success for this important global forum for this and the years ahead.

The last time we met at the Xiangshan Forum was in 2019; barely four years and yet the world has changed on us. Three epochal events, each with a global impact, have taken place. All countries fought and struggled against COVID-19 from December 2019 and many countries are still recovering; Europe is at war fought on the battlegrounds of Ukraine precipitated by Russia's invasion in February 2021. For this generation at least, hopes for integration of Russia with the European Union have all but evaporated. Seeds of growing tension and conflict, which has happened at the turn of the 20th century and the early 1900s, have again been sown for the future. The Middle East is once again in turmoil, in the aftermath of Hamas' terror attacks on Israel. It has been a difficult time especially for innocent civilians.

If there is any lesson that we can all learn from these unanticipated events, it is that peace is precarious and never a given for any country, region and indeed our world. As defenders of our nations, as commanders of militaries, as senior officials and Ministers of Defence, it will be us who prosecute war, if needed and called upon. Because we have this responsibility, we must also know the cost of war and the heavy price it will extract on parties involved. And we must affirm that no efforts are wasted or spared to keep the peace, because it is peace that allows our countries and citizens to progress. "Without security, there can be no progress, no economic future". This was the key message that Singapore's founding Prime Minister Mr Lee Kuan Yew conveyed to senior military commanders of the Singapore Armed Forces in 2012. He was close to 90 years old then, but felt as passionately about this belief as ever.

Open and Inclusive Regional Architecture

Establishing stability for peace does not mean an absence of disagreements with neighbours or other powers – that has never happened in human history. We should advance our understanding, if not trust with one another, despite our differences, to find common ground for mutual cooperation and benefit. This has been the driving aspiration and motivation for the ADMM-Plus – the 10 nations of ASEAN and eight Plus partners of Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Russia and the US. In this regard, the ADMM-Plus aims to have strategic dialogue on regional security issues, as well as practical cooperation amongst all its militaries. I remind us that the ADMM-Plus represents more than four billion people and account for a significant proportion of the world's military forces.

Singapore values China's consistent and constructive partnership in the ADMM-Plus, especially through the Experts' Working Groups and other multilateral exercises such as the ASEAN-China Maritime Exercise, which Singapore had the privilege of facilitating in 2018. These regular military-to-military touchpoints are invaluable in fostering mutual trust and understanding.

But to be effective, the ADMM-Plus must also deal squarely with regional security challenges. This includes maritime security in the South China Sea, to nuclear and security threats on the Korean Peninsula, as well as transnational security threats, such as terrorism, cybercrimes, hostile information campaigns, climate change and humanitarian disasters.

Open Channels of Communication

Our defence establishments and militaries must engage. It is vital that we do so to reduce the risk of miscalculations and mishaps. For this coming decade, the most important task for all security chiefs is to avoid a physical conflict in Asia. What has happened in Europe and the Middle East must never occur here. Simultaneous conflicts in Asia, Europe and the Middle East will be catastrophic for our World. A physical conflict in Asia, whatever the rationale, whatever the precipitating cause, will be devastating. We must do all we can to avoid it.

Processes to settle disputes, avoid and de-escalate clashes are necessary tools to avoid conflict. To this end, ADMM has adopted the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) and the Guidelines for Air Military Encounters (GAME). As a region, we have practised these guidelines, such as during the ASEAN-China Maritime Exercise in 2018 where CUES was employed. But for further avoidance of risks, CUES will need to be applied to paramilitary vessels, particularly coast guards.

Open channels of communication such as hotlines can make a difference especially in moments of crisis. Singapore and China signed a MOU in June this year to work towards the establishment of a secure defence telephone link. The US and China have similar bilateral defence lines established, and the hope is that both countries will find an arrangement to use them effectively. ASEAN had also operationalised an ASEAN Direct Communications Infrastructure, this was in 2017 – it is a hotline set up to allow for Defence Ministers to communicate during crises or emergencies. ASEAN has welcomed ADMM-Plus countries to join this initiative, and Japan is the first Plus country to operationalise the hotline in March this year.

US-China Relations

Beyond crisis management, one of the central conundrums for this generation, is the US-China strategic rivalry. Both US and China will continue to be economic and military powers. The differences in ideology, political and value systems will always exist between the two. In terms of geopolitical influence, the G2 scenario – where China dominates west of Guam in Asia and the US, east of Guam – is fantasy. It will never become the reality. Neither will the world be better off if either the US or China declines. We need both a strong US and a strong China if we are to effectively address global challenges. What is needed is that political commitment and hard work from both countries to improve relations. And here, we note progress in establishing meetings and hopefully a summit between President Xi and President Biden in the coming months ahead.

Singapore is confident that China has the wisdom and determination to not only keep the peace in Asia, but also lift up this and other regions as it progresses. In the past decade, China has helped many countries build infrastructure through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), such as the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed train in Indonesia and the Laos-China Railway. China has already committed to sustain these initiatives – President Xi Jinping recently announced that the key BRI lenders, the Export-Import Bank and China Development Bank, will offer an additional US$100 billion in loans. Singapore supports these efforts to develop countries in Asia to meet the hopes and aspirations of this Asian century.

What more can China do to promote stability in this region and globally? I would humbly suggest three broad tracks. First, China must continue to grow economically and further integrate its markets with the rest of the World. Economic and financial growth are strengths in themselves. Yes, it will get harder because of the prevailing climate of distrust and strategic competition. But I believe that China has indigenous strengths that it can draw from, particularly its strengths in STEM capabilities.

Second, China must continue to promote multilateralism and uphold the rule of law. That is China's greatest assurance to other nations, big or small, that China's growth is inclusive and will lift all boats – that as China grows economically and militarily, it does not seek to supplant or replace others based on its own national interests.

Third, China including the People's Liberation Army, must lead to reduce tensions in our region. Whether China accepts it or not, wants it or not, it is already seen as a dominant power and must therefore act as a benevolent one.

This morning we heard the careful elaboration of the Global Security Initiative. I make these three broad generalisations in the hope that China's progress will be seen and acted upon as a virtue rather than a threat, to promote stability in our region.

Conclusion

Since we last convened at the Xiangshan Forum in 2019, our world has become a more dangerous and divided one. Whether Asia can rise and prosper as it has done in the past two decades depends on our ability to secure the peace in this region despite growing geopolitical instability.

Thank you very much.

More Resources

Dr Ng: Trust and Understanding Despite Differences Key for Cooperation and Mutual Benefit

Transcript of Question and Answer Session at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, Third Plenary Session on “Asia-Pacific Security Architecture: Present and Future” on 31 Oct 2023