Speech by Senior Minister State of Defence, Dr Mohamad Maliki Bin Osman, at the 6th Moscow Conference on International Security, on 27 Apr 2017, 1430hrs

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. I would first like to thank Minister Shoigu and the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation for their kind invitation to Singapore to be part of the 6th Moscow Conference on International Security. It is truly an honour for me to speak at this third plenary session.

The Importance of Multilateralism

First, let me speak on the importance of multilateralism. Our topic today is a timely one. Global dependence on the Asia-Pacific region for manufacturing, trade and shipping has risen. Asia-Pacific is home to some of the largest economies in the world, and accounts for more than 50% of the global economy. In 2015, China alone produced about 80% of the world's air-conditioners, 70% of its mobile phones and 60% of its shoes. Trade within the Asia-Pacific region accounted for more than half of the world's global maritime trade in 2015, and this is expected to continue to rise in the future. Many of the world's strategic shipping lanes traverse the Asia-Pacific region, and half of the world's oil supply passes through the Straits of Malacca. The nature of our globalised economy means that the Asia-Pacific region requires peace and stability in order to continue driving global economic growth. 

Yet, even though there is so much at stake in this region, or perhaps I should say because there is so much at stake in this region, regional flashpoints have become sharper. Geopolitical uncertainties and unresolved regional disputes have heighted the risk of miscalculation and conflict. The Asia-Pacific is one of the only regions in the world where defence spending has been increasing. Defence spending in Asia grew by 4.6% annually over the 2012 to 2016 period, while defence spending in North America and Europe fell by 2.7% and 3.4% annually respectively over the same period. In fact, defence spending in the Asia-Pacific is projected to climb by 23% from 2016 to more than US$500 billion by 2020. Such rising military modernisation carries with it the increased risks of an arms race, miscalculation and conflict. Nationalistic sentiments in the region have also become more prevalent, and governments may feel compelled to take tougher and more assertive positions with other countries to satisfy their domestic publics. 

It might be naïve to suggest that win-win solutions exist for all competing interests, but we need to ensure that we do not fall into the trap of lose-lose situations like military standoffs. History is full of such lessons, from the Konfrontasi, or Indonesian-Malaysian confrontation in the 1960s that lasted four years and inflicted hundreds of casualties on both sides, to the recent Cambodian-Thai border dispute from 2008 to 2011 that also resulted in military and civilian casualties on both sides of the border. The Korean War caused more than a million casualties and cost around $100 billion, yet at the end of it the borders between North and South Korea were little changed. Fortunately, we have moved on from these events with the realisation that we only stand to lose from such armed conflict, and that we need to make a conscious effort to facilitate multilateral interactions and military-to-military engagements, in order to gain a greater appreciation of each other's worldviews and constraints, open more trusted channels of communication, and reduce the risk of miscalculations and mistakes. 

Multilateral Platforms in the Asia-Pacific Region and Beyond

Singapore has long-supported such multilateral engagements in the region. The ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) and ADMM-Plus, the only formal defence dialogues in the region held at the Defence Ministers' level, are prime examples of multilateral platforms that help to build a stable regional security architecture. A key value proposition of the ADMM-Plus is its ability to bring senior leaders from its members' militaries together through its Experts' Working Groups or EWGs for regional dialogue and practical cooperation, despite differences on particular issues such as territorial disputes. Currently, the ADMM-Plus has seven EWGs covering humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, maritime security, counter-terrorism, military medicine, peacekeeping operations, humanitarian mine action  and cybersecurity. In 2016, four field training exercises were held involving all EWGs, including the first ADMM-Plus Maritime Security and Counter-Terrorism Exercise in May 2016 co-hosted by Singapore, Brunei, Australia and New Zealand, involving 3,500 personnel from all 18 ADMM-Plus countries, including the US and China. Singapore also supports the proposed conduct of an ASEAN-China Maritime Exercise, which would build mutual trust and confidence, and reflect China's commitment and willingness to engage the region.

The Five Power Defence Arrangement or FPDA comprising Singapore, Malaysia, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Australia, has also played an integral role in the regional security architecture over the last 46 years. Through the regular conduct of multilateral exercises, the defence forces of FPDA member-nations have been able to share professional knowledge, build confidence, and enhance regional cooperation. The Shangri-La Dialogue is an annual meeting that last drew more than 600 delegates in June 2016, including 30 ministers from 35 countries, and has facilitated constructive dialogue on regional issues. And around the globe, the 35-member Indian Ocean Naval Symposium or IONS with its focus on maritime security and cooperation in the Indian Ocean; the Sulu Sea Patrols involving Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, which aim to combat human trafficking and terrorism; the Malacca Straits Patrols, where the littoral states of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand undertake air and sea patrols and intelligence-sharing to combat piracy in our waters; and the 21 Pacific nation-member Western Pacific Naval Symposium or WPNS, are other examples of multilateral groupings that have evolved to tackle transnational challenges and threats. 

One example of the progress made by such platforms is the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea or CUES. It was first adopted by the 14th WPNS in 2014, and Singapore is looking to get all ADMM-Plus countries to adopt it as well. The Republic of Singapore Navy is also seeking to develop a code of conduct for submariners to enhance underwater and submarine operations safety through multilateral naval forums like the Submarine Operational Safety Conference or SMOSC and the WPNS. It is critically important for us to proactively engage in these multilateral platforms to manage differences, appreciate each other's space, and find common ground in this age where security challenges are becoming increasingly transboundary in nature, and are moving into non-traditional realms, like cyber-space with the threat of information warfare.

Terrorism in Southeast Asia 

Yet we cannot forget that the global threat of terrorism is at an all-time high. Within the Asia-Pacific, Islamic extremism and terrorism are becoming an increasingly clear and present threat. There are almost 30,000 foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria according to UN reports in 2016, and more than a thousand of these fighters are from Southeast Asia. The threat of returning foreign fighters looms large, with ISIS' territory losses in the Middle East prompting it to change its tactics to encourage decentralised attacks in home countries instead. This has manifested in recent attacks such as in London, the Philippines, Indonesia, Sweden and St Petersburg. 

Returning fighters may also leverage unhappiness over domestic issues in their home countries to set up bases in the Asia-Pacific. ISIS seeks to establish a caliphate in Southeast Asia, and it has been aided by the rising number of regional extremist groups. Southeast Asia saw a rise in ISIS-linked plots and attacks in 2016, with ISIS having claimed responsibility for at least three successful attacks in Malaysia and Indonesia, and with another 21 planned attacks foiled by authorities. The Philippines, Thailand, and Myanmar are also facing increasing levels of terrorist-linked activity, with last month's edition of ISIS' Rumiyah magazine even devoting a section to the southern Philippines. Just two weeks ago, Philippine security forces thwarted an attempted kidnapping plot through clashes with Abu Sayyaf militants in Bohol. If not dealt with urgently, this problem could become endemic to the Asia-Pacific region, and severely threaten our security and economic development.

Singapore is certainly not immune to such terrorist threats. For the first time in a decade, Singapore's terrorism risk level has been raised in a recent report by global consultancy Aon. In August 2016, a plot to launch a rocket to attack targets in Singapore by elements with ISIS links was foiled by the Indonesian authorities. In response, Singapore has adopted a multi-pronged approach, by building resilience and maintaining social cohesion within our multi-racial and multi-religious society. Proactive and preventive measures are taken by our Mufti and organisations such as Singapore's Religious Rehabilitation Group to counteract ISIS propaganda and rehabilitate individuals who have been radicalised. But beyond our own borders, greater international cooperation and coordination are needed to address the problem of transnational networks of terrorists. Multilateral platforms that enable countries to cooperate in counter-terrorism efforts, including sharing of intelligence, will become increasingly vital to our ability to effectively deal with terrorist threats in the region.

Conclusion

Singapore remains optimistic that the Asia-Pacific will continue to be a reliable engine for global economic growth, but all countries in the region need to continue lending support to not just sustaining, but proactively growing multilateral platforms that facilitate engagement and regional dialogue. Only then will we have the chance to develop long-standing relationships built on trust and cooperation, and be ready to tackle the regional challenges that lie ahead of us. Thank you.

More Resources

Dr Maliki: Need for Dialogue and Practical Cooperation to Secure a Peaceful and Stable Asia-Pacific