Speech by Senior Minister of State for Defence Heng Chee How at the 8th Moscow Conference on International Security

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, distinguished guests.

I would first like to thank Minister Shoigu and the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation for the invitation to Singapore to be part of the 8^th Moscow Conference on International Security. This is the fourth time that Singapore is participating in this Conference, and I am pleased to speak alongside a distinguished panel, and be able to share Singapore's perspectives on security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific.

Multilateralism has served us well

The system of multilateralism which emerged after the end of World War II, and evolved into what it is today after the Cold War, has benefited all countries, big and small. Allow me to highlight four key features of this multilateral order that stand out.

First, globalisation and economic liberalisation have brought prosperity to all countries, even as we enhance the distribution of the gains of trade. The reduction of trade barriers, through successive rounds of tariff negotiations, has fostered a favourable business environment conducive to the growth of exports and investments, and the flow of skilled personnel and technologies. It is notable that the value of global exports in the year 2014, adjusted for constant prices, was more than 50 times that prior to World War I, that is compared to the year 1913 and more than 32 times that after World War II, measured against the year 1950.

Second, the free movement of people and goods, made possible by improvements in travel and transport, has supported the increase in world trade. Compared to 1930, the cost of sea freight has fallen by 5 times by the year 2005, while passenger air transport costs fell even more, by 10 times. At the same time, the number of tourists worldwide increased exponentially, from 25 million in the year 1950 to 1.2 billion in the year 2016. This represents an almost 50-fold increase.

Third, closer collaboration and interactions across geographies have accelerated technological innovation. Today, we are on the cusp of commercial adoption of 5G technology. We are talking about speeds of up to 20 Gigabits per second, which is a 10 million-fold increase from the speed of first generation technology. Earlier this month, the Republic of Korea and the United States were the first two countries to roll out their commercial 5G networks. I would believe that many more countries are expected to do so very quickly.

Fourth, we have witnessed the proliferation of a host of international and regional institutions, and these have established rules and norms to manage and govern inter-state and cross-border interactions on trade and security. They include, and are not limited to: and the United Nations, the G20, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which was succeeded by the WTO.

The Asia-Pacific is one region that has benefited tremendously from multilateralism and open market economies. Many of the countries in the region, which were economically crippled or devastated after World War II, are today some of the most dynamic and prosperous economies in the world. At the same time, ASEAN, and its associated mechanisms, have helped to forge a stable regional architecture which has promoted dialogue and cooperation. This stable external regional environment has provided conditions for countries to continue to enjoy peace and prosperity.

Points of Tension

However, this spirit of multilateralism is now being challenged by two points of tension.

First, a wave of protectionist and isolationist sentiment has emerged, born out of the unhappiness that economic globalisation, a key outcome of the multilateral trade regime, has unevenly benefited certain countries and peoples, thereby creating "winners" and "losers".

The growth in conservative, anti-globalisation and anti-immigration sentiment sweeping across North America, Europe and in parts of the Asia-Pacific can be seen as an acute reaction to economic globalisation. These trends challenge the fundamental tenets of the current system, and multilateralism as a whole. A more radical and deformed outgrowth of this protest against globalisation is in the observed increase in xenophobia and racism in many countries. This has already fuelled extremist and terrorist acts throughout the world, including the tragic Easter bombing of churches in Sri Lanka just a few days ago, and the shocking terrorist attacks in Christchurch, New Zealand, last month.

In Singapore, we are also cognisant of the threat of returning fighters from the Middle East following the defeat of ISIS. From our vantage point as a global maritime hub which is reliant on international trade, and a multi-racial and multi-ethnic country, these trends pose a particular and significant challenge to our security.

Second, strategic rivalry between the US and China risks spilling over into overt competition, which would create costs and challenges for individual states and the region at large. The post-Cold War period which witnessed the West's attempts to integrate China and members of the former Soviet bloc into the prevailing international system. China's ascension to the WTO in 2001 was a watershed moment; Russia's ascension in 2012 was another. However, this reflected an extraordinary state of affairs, and the "honeymoon period" appears to be over. We are now seeing signs of a return to the great power rivalry that has defined the most part of our modern international system.

Let me turn to the implications of this on the Asia-Pacific, where the effects are likely to be very keenly felt. Fundamental points of tension between the US and China, which are not entirely new, have surfaced. We are on the brink of open competition, particularly in trade and technology spheres. This poses two key challenges for the region and the standing multilateral order.

First, more countries may be put in positions where they have to choose sides, whether deliberately or as an inadvertent and unfortunate outcome. For countries that do not have indigenous capabilities, the choice of network provider to supply 5G technology, for example, increasingly looks to be one area where they may be forced to choose. Such zero-sum approaches pose hard choices for regional states.

Second, ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have already slowed regional economic activity. Factory activity and export orders across the region, including in Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, have all slipped at the onset of the trade tensions. The ongoing trade tensions also appear to have harmed the US' and China's own economies. China's factory activity reportedly fell for four months from Nov 2018 to a four-year low in Feb 2019, while unemployment rose to a two-year high. Estimates also suggest that the US has forgone roughly US$17 billion-worth of exports to China in the five months from Jul to Nov 2018 due to its increased and imposed tariffs.

If left unchecked, these trends could lead countries to be more inward-looking, and produce beggar-thy-neighbour outcomes. And in the worst case, we could see a divided region.

Need for an Equilibrium

Ladies and gentlemen, the tensions that I have highlighted have already generated costs, and risk undermining regional stability in the longer-run. Multilateralism can thus be said to be at the crossroads. From Singapore's perspective, it is essential that all players work together to arrive at a new equilibrium. This necessarily involves give-and-take on all sides. While it may be difficult, we must do it and avoid a return to the pre-World War II system of bilateralism, or the Cold War-era bifurcation of global politics.

As we search for this new equilibrium, it is essential that all sides find ways to manage disputes and prevent them from escalating. While some competition is to be expected between great powers, conflict is not inevitable.

Let me offer two suggestions of how defence ministries and militaries in our region can directly strengthen multilateralism, for our collective peace and development.

First, maintaining strong military-to-military cooperation and communication is essential to building trust. Communication and a degree of trust between military establishments are essential in averting crisis and countering escalatory narratives. For instance, we witnessed the meeting between then-US Secretary of Defense James Mattis and China's Minister for National Defence GEN Wei, who is here with us today, on the sidelines last year of the ASEAN Defence Minister's Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus meeting) that was held in Singapore in Oct last year, where both sides reaffirmed the importance of dialogue, risk reduction and maintaining open lines of communication between both militaries. This sent a strong signal of assurance to the rest of the region, and countered the pessimistic narrative which arose after decisions to cancel several high-level interactions were made in the preceding weeks of that meeting. Such exchanges are important and contribute to stable bilateral and regional relations.

Second, we must shore up regional security institutions such as the ADMM-Plus, in which Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Russia, United States are participating members alongside the ten ASEAN states. Such institutions provide important platforms to foster practical cooperation amongst member states, to engage in dialogue, and to build trust. We have already witnessed concrete successes. The ten ASEAN member states adopted the Guidelines for Air Military Encounters (GAME) in Oct 2018 on the sidelines of the ADMM meeting. This represents the world's first set of multilateral air guidelines, which can serve to prevent disastrous consequences that may result from unplanned encounters between military aircraft. GAME complements the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) that was already adopted by all ADMM-Plus countries, and we will exercise CUES in the upcoming ADMM-Plus Maritime Security Exercise, to be held in the Republic of Korea and Singapore this month and May respectively. The ADMM-Plus Experts' Working Group (EWG) system also provides opportunities for member militaries to enhance practical cooperation and sharing. We have found the system of partnering an ASEAN state with a Plus member to drive collaboration in seven specific areas to be very useful. There are now EWGs for Counter-Terrorism, Cybersecurity, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR), Humanitarian Mine Action, Maritime Security, Military Medicine, and Peacekeeping Operations.

Conclusion

There is an urgent need for multilateralism to adapt to the changing realities, and for all parties to seek and to arrive at a new equilibrium. The alternative to that is isolationism, protectionism and strategic rivalry. We must not repeat past mistakes; and there is now much for us all to do, and in getting it wrong, there is much for all of us to lose.

Thank you very much.

More Resources

Heng Chee How: Need for Multilateralism to be Renewed and Strengthened for Peace and Prosperity in the Region