Speech by Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen at the Second IISS Fullerton Forum: The Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting

SEEKING COMMON GROUND AMID NATIONAL ASPIRATIONS

Asia-Pacific in 2013Let me begin by thanking the IISS for organising this meeting in Singapore, and by extending a warm welcome to all participants.

To maintain and promote peace and stability in this region, our strategies and initiatives must take into account present realities and also withstand the vicissitudes of economic and political changes unfolding in various countries.

Let me sketch briefly the positions and aspirations of key players in this region and the challenges that impact us all arising from these hopes and dreams.

US First, the United States.

Despite the focus on its "pivot to the Asia-Pacific region", the US never ever left and has been a resident power in the Pacific region for the past 50 years. Most would agree that the US's dominant position - even a "hyperpower" - provided the security umbrella that enabled in part the stability for emerging economies within Asia to prosper and grow.

The US is still by far the largest and most professional military globally, accounting for around 40% of global military spending, and its capabilities remain unparalleled.

Chinese General Chen Bingde in his visit to the US in May 2011, said that there remained a "gaping gap" between the US and Chinese military. At the 2011 SLD, then-Chinese Defence Minister General Liang Guanglie added that China's military development was still 20 years behind the US. Defence budget cuts notwithstanding, the US will continue to exert its strategic influence in this region to honour its historical commitments to its allies and friends and because as US National Security Advisor Susan Rice has emphasised, the US' own economic future is inextricably linked to that of the Asia-Pacific. The US is here to stay as a dominant Pacific power.

China Next, China. China's rise as a global power is a fact, and with it, the resources to modernise its military. China's GDP has risen nearly 30 fold, from approximately US$300 billion in 1980 to its current US$8,900 billion in 2013. Its defence spending currently stands at US$119 billion, second only to the US. China's military modernisation is underpinned and sustained by indigenous science and technology capabilities, whether it's the successful development of its J-20 and J-31 stealth fighters or in emerging domains such as cyberspace and electronic warfare. A strong PLA reflects China's national aspirations and pride as it takes its place as a global power.

Having "hidden its capacities and bided its time" ("韬光养晦"), as advocated by Deng Xiaoping, President Xi Jinping has signalled China’s debutante moment on course to achieve the China dream of the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" ("中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦").  A strong PLA is integral to these ambitions as the "Chinese Dream" is underpinned by "unison between a prosperous country and strong military" ("富国和强军相统一"). The PLA on its part is conscious and remembers vividly how a weak China in the 19th and 20th centuries, lost its territories and was invaded. The PLA has its own scenarios of "never again".

Japan

Japan is understandably concerned about its own security and sovereignty as the relative strengths of its strategic ally, the US, changes with regard to China. The historical animosities toward Japan serve to heighten these concerns. A Japan that is perceived to be weak would be an electoral disaster for any incumbent and an ineffective deterrent. As stated by the Japanese Defence Minister Onodera during last year's SLD, "Japan must be strong; so Japan can do more in the maintenance and strengthening of an international order based on the rule of law".

In this context, the Abe Administration seeks to strengthen Japan’s military capabilities, to be able to defend Japan, and to revise Japan's constitution which currently prohibits "collective self-defense". This shift away from Japan's post-WWII pacifism is likely to continue even if there is a change of government. Apart from the threat of the DPRK, South Korea's defence posture would therefore also be impacted, given its close proximity to both Japan and China.

India

India similarly upgraded its military capabilities in tandem with its economic rise. According to estimates, India was the world's largest importer of weapons between 2007 and 2011. But India's domestic pre-occupations, non-aligned stance and geographic position just outside the Pacific, shape its strategic outlook and actual involvement in this region, despite its Look East policy. Hence, commentators have described India as a "reluctant power", yet to grasp the significance of its role in the wider regional security.

ASEAN

In contrast to India, ASEAN is at the centre amid these choppy geopolitical waters. However, ASEAN's central position is not borne from inherent strengths of economic and military might but because the alternative of polarised regional blocs, with major powers competing for influence through proxy states, would be disastrous for regional stability. In particular, the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca are vital to global trade and need to be free of political contest.

Given this kaleidoscope of historical and emerging interests and national aspirations, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is right that "the Asia-Pacific has become a key driver of global politics". In global defence spending, this is already the case - amounting to US$382 billion in 2012, almost a doubling of the US$202 billion two years before. President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy has rightly cautioned that "the premises of an arms race are there".

Changing Power Dynamics and the Resurgence of Nationalism

Nationalist ambitions, progressive military modernisation, and dynamic changes in power relations form the backdrop to recent events in Asia. The altercation between the two largest Asian economies, complicated by resurgent nationalisms, historical grievances, and overlapping territorial claims, were symptoms but still a defining feature of regional security relations in 2013.

Tensions have escalated to an all-time high, with Japan warning that it would shoot down foreign drones infringing its airspace, which China said would be an "act of war" and China declaring an Air Defence Identification Zone in the East China Sea. There is real concern of miscalculation, if parties lack the trust or political will to work with each other to defuse tensions.

The Way Forward

What is the way forward? How do we accommodate national interests and seek common ground for stability and prosperity? We will need platforms upon which to anchor relations and build on them. We should put away our differences to steer the region away from conflict and towards mutual interest and common norms acceptable to all, and to shape positive outcomes and solutions to our common challenges. Indeed, as Vietnamese Prime Minister Dung highlighted during his keynote address at last year's SLD, there is a need to nurture greater strategic trust in the Asia-Pacific, because "if trust is lost, all is lost". I would like to suggest three principles to build strategic trust.

Build Mutual Trust

Firstly, we must redouble our efforts in engagement and diplomacy to build mutual trust. China must be conscious that while it has legitimate rights to assert its sovereignty, by virtue of being a global power, China sets precedents and terms of reference which other nations perceive as new rules governing international norms. The US needs to continue to play its crucial role as a stabilising force for the Asia-Pacific region but has to accommodate the rise of other regional powers. The US needs to regain its economic vitality to play this crucial stabilising role globally. For Japan, Prime Minister Murayama's formal apology in 1995 was an important step in helping Japan put the history of the war behind it. Japan will have to do more to assure its neighbours especially as it seeks a strong Japan with greater military capabilities. ASEAN must speak with unity to protect its common interests. It is to our collective interests to forge relationships of mutual benefit and trust because of our mutual dependence.

Today, East Asia and the Pacific contribute 40% of global growth and one-third of global trade, higher than any other region in the world, and China alone accounts for nearly 11 % of global trade in goods. By some estimates, in 2030, there will be approximately 1.4 billion middle class consumers in China, four times as many in the US and three times as many in Western Europe. The world needs China, as well as the US, and Japan as its growth engines. The promise of Asia, burgeoning with growth and opportunity, is what enlightened powers have collectively worked for, fought and died for, in the last half century. The promise of growth and prosperity that Asia offers can only be realized if we choose pragmatism over provocation, and take consistent steps towards dialogue and mutual understanding.

Positive Engagement

For this reason, Singapore believes in fostering positive engagement through an open and inclusive regional security architecture. This is the second principle for building strategic trust. I am heartened that Defence Minister Onodera took the opportunity at last year's SLD to acknowledge that Japan had caused "tremendous damage and suffering" to many Asian nations, and emphasized previous Japanese apologies. This prompted a Chinese delegate to express appreciation for Onodera's "positive attitude on history", which pointed toward an "optimistic future for the region". This was an encouraging exchange, and writing in the New York Times in 2013, Professor Jennifer Lind noted that this was the kind of mature leadership that East Asia needed more of. I am therefore glad that in addition to the SLD, IISS has established the Sherpa meeting to give its participants another platform and opportunity for positive engagement.

Practical Cooperation Beyond dialogue, there must be practical cooperation to build trust and cultivate habits of working together towards common goals. Here, the ADMM-Plus has entrenched itself as a valuable platform for practical cooperation in the region. The first ADMM-Plus in 2010 brought together all ten ASEAN states and eight "Plus" countries - Australia, China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Russia and the US. The ADMM-Plus Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) and Military Medicine exercise in June last year was substantive, involving 3,000 troops, six ships, 15 helicopters, as well as military medical, engineering and search and rescue teams. It allowed constructive engagement and practical cooperation between all 18 militaries, including China and Japan, who were co-chairs of the exercise. Such dialogue and cooperation have contributed to a climate of cooperation and opened up the possibility for the ADMM-Plus to pursue practical measures in response to regional security challenges.  When Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines, many countries responded individually. The ADMM-Plus militaries could perhaps have been more effective working together, and these challenges point to the need for more coordinated, collective efforts. Not just in terms of enhancing cooperation in HADR, but also to address other regional security challenges. As a first step, we welcome the ASEAN member states' proposed measures for reducing the risk of misunderstandings or mishaps in the South China Sea, such as the suggestion by Brunei to establish hotlines to maintain government-to-government contact, as well as Vietnam's proposal for a no-first-use of force agreement.

Conclusion

Let me conclude by stating that political will and leadership will be required from all countries if we are to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Singapore looks forward to enlightened leadership from major powers, including the US, China and Japan, to help achieve stability and progress for Asia and indeed, the world. While there are areas of concern, we can write a future of mutual trust; mutual interest underpinned by peace and stability in the region, as we focus on positive engagement and practical cooperation. I look forward to your ideas on how we can make this a reality.

Have a productive meeting and a good year ahead.