Keynote Address by Second Minister for Defence Chan Chun Sing at the 7th Asia Pacific Security Conference

Ambassador Barry Desker,Dean, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies,Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen,A very good morning. Let me first extend a warm welcome to all of you, and for those who have participated in previous editions of this conference, a warm welcome back. This conference is held in conjunction with the Singapore Airshow for the seventh time now; it continues to bring together senior policy makers, military leaders, air power practitioners and academic experts. I hope this will continue to allow participants to network and exchange views on ideas that can contribute to the enhancement of regional stability and peace.

Regional Dynamics

We are living in interesting times. Asia Pacific has seen rapid economic development. Economic growth has lifted millions from poverty and improved the lives of many more. The fast changing regional demographics further add elements to the already interesting times.

With the exception of a few countries like Japan, countries around the region can expect to see their populations grow further in the coming years. In the next two decades, China's population is expected to grow to 1.45 billion and India's to 1.53 billion. Southeast Asia's population, out of which half is currently under the age of 30, is expected to grow by 19% over the next two decades. South and Southeast Asia will remain relatively youthful compared to Northeast Asia and indeed, most developed countries.

Access to education and higher education has also increased tremendously in the region. As an indication, the adult literacy rate in the Asia-Pacific region has increased from 82% in 1990 to almost 96% today. The percentage of those with access to secondary and tertiary education is expected to grow across the board for almost all countries. This combination of a growing population - and youthful populations for South and Southeast Asia in particular - with better-educated workforces presents huge potential for regional prosperity. However, these very same factors can also cause nations to face competing demands for resources in order to meet the rising aspirations of their people. These factors can also lead to other contests in the perception of might. Rapid growth can breed confidence as much as assertiveness.

Opportunities for growth will enhance shared interests and interdependence among regional states. We share interests in securing common space for trade to enable prosperity and development for all. As economies become even more interdependent as trade grows, states will also better appreciate the need to work together to reap mutual benefits.

On the other hand, as the economic stakes increase and indeed the contest for resources intensifies, countries are also likely to be more assertive in defending their strategic interests and perceived interests. Growing nationalism in some countries has exacerbated historical animosities, which in turn increases the pressure on governments to be seen to be defending these interests and redressing real and perceived historical wrongs. At the same time, the unequal distribution of growth across the region has also placed some countries and their governments in conditions of relative inadequacy. For these countries, foreign policy can become a convenient means to shift attention away from domestic issues. Such behaviour can precipitate state-to-state tensions and undermine regional stability.

So what can we do to navigate away from strife and towards shared interests? I think the answer lies in one word - leadership. We need wise and strong leaders who appreciate that there is much more to gain through cooperation than conflict. We also need courageous leaders who do not succumb to domestic pressures or nationalistic pursuits against the greater good of the region, including seeking to right historical wrongs, and perceived wrongs, when the conditions are still premature. Indeed, this was the wise approach taken by the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, who declared that some issues are better left to future generations with greater wisdom to resolve. We need leaders who do not succumb to the notion that might is right. That the mightier one may be, the more circumspect one may be in using one's might. The mark of a powerful country is not how it is able to use its might to get its way. The mark of a truly powerful country is how it is able to restrain itself and not have to use its might to get its way and yet convince others to come along its side.

Military Modernization and the Strategic Environment

The potential for tensions to spiral out of control in today's strategic environment cannot be underestimated. As regional economies grow, countries have also gained the wherewithal to acquire more advanced war fighting platforms. Last year, for the first time, Asia spent more on defence than Europe, and this trend is projected to continue. As more advanced military platforms are introduced into the regional military landscape, the challenge will be to reduce the potential for miscalculations. For airpower in particular, there will be a temptation to use it as the instrument of choice in any contest or demonstration of national will, given the reach of airpower and the seeming ease of forward deployment to tackle threats and perceived threats away from population centres.

How ongoing military modernization efforts shape the regional landscape will very much depend on how we manage its accompanying opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, the enhanced capabilities of regional militaries present more opportunities for the militaries to work together to secure the global commons, and in so doing forge goodwill and trust. For example, the Republic of Singapore Air Force participates in multilateral security cooperation such as the combined maritime air patrols in the Malacca Strait, HADR missions like the Typhoon Haiyan relief effort, and peace support operations in Timor-Leste and Iraq. On the other hand, the enhanced lethality of new military platforms has also placed more destructive power and responsibility in the hands of our soldiers, sailors and airmen. Tactical miscalculations can rapidly spiral out of control, aggravating strategic rivalries and leading to conflict.

The Way Forward

What can we, as defence and security professionals, do to steer the region away from potential conflicts and towards cooperation in areas of common interests? I suggest we interact boldly, dialogue openly, network assiduously and train together professionally. These are the reasons why Singapore supports and hosts multilateral and bilateral forums to allow parties with different interests to come together in a neutral and non-threatening environment to find common ground, forge consensus and generate positive ideas to build a more peaceful environment for all. Such platforms include today's Asia-Pacific Security Conference and the annual Shangri-La Dialogue.

But our efforts must extend beyond the strategic and policy levels. Markets do not just watch politicians speak; markets, more than ever, watch military moves. We must therefore back political efforts with practical military cooperation, to build trust and cultivate habits of working together towards common goals at the military-to-military level. Military professionals, more than politicians, have the opportunity to grow up, train together and bond to build deep trusts. These opportunities, when used well, provide basis for deep trusts and open communications. We have seen many previous occasions when the political channels may have stopped but the military channels continue to be open, and this had provided alternative channels to calm things. On the other hand, we have also seen situations where poor military links exacerbate the political tensions, leading to unfortunate outcomes. We have also seen poor military professionalism causing unwanted incidents that then lock political masters into positions that they cannot back down, causing already tricky situations to spiral out of control. A positive example of practical military cooperation is the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM)-Plus exercise held last June in Brunei, which brought together over 3,000 military personnel from 18 ADMM-Plus countries. Such tactical and operational engagements can help build strategic confidence and moderate tensions. The value of the exercise was not just in the exercise itself. The value of the exercise was also seen in the many sessions - planning together and working together prior to the exercise to make things happen. And these are valuable opportunities for military and security professionals to grow together, to bond and to build trusts so that we develop alternative channels to calm things when things do not go well.

Conclusion

Today, we have participants hailing from academic, policy and operational backgrounds. I hope that the conversations and exchanges to come will spur ideas and possible initiatives that can help encourage constructive dialogue and practical cooperation. But more importantly, I hope that all of us will take back ideas and proposals discussed here and work towards translating them into real, tangible outcomes. It is through such efforts that we can engender a future of peace and prosperity founded on mutual trust, respect and shared interests. On that note, I wish everyone a productive conference ahead.

Thank you very much.