Speech by Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen, at The Munich Young Leaders Round Table on Security Policy

I propose to focus my remarks on Asia for this roundtable, and I don't intend to be very long because I rather have the exchange of views because I'm sure one, you can get very tired of listening to speeches as wonderful as they have been and I would say that the 50th anniversary of the Munich Security Conference is a historic occasion and all of us should feel very special that we are here to see Mr Schmidt, Henry Kissinger and just on the same stage as President d'Estaing. It is a rare occasion. It is a historic conference. I thought I would focus my remarks on Asia to fit the time constraints as well as because I think there were many eminent speakers who have spoken on other regions.

I would start by saying that as a broad statement, Asia's rise over the last 50 years has been nothing short of transformational and virtuous; and I think the historical context bears revisiting. Following World War II, Japan and South Korea were devastated. But today, Japan and Korea are thriving economies. For Southeast Asia, the tide of independence would take almost 40 years, but eventually all states were freed from their colonial masters - it started with Vietnam and in 1945 and it culminated in Brunei's independence in 1984, a relatively recent event. Singapore too is still a relatively young nation of 48 years, independent since 1965. So as a region, I would say, we are a very young independent region.

From the 1950s to the 1970s, the fledgling Southeast Asian nations and Korea fought against Communism. In former US President John F. Kennedy's words, "to those new states whom we welcome to the ranks of the free, we pledge our word that one form of colonial control shall not have passed away merely to be replaced by a far more iron tyranny". It was a very difficult and painful period for Southeast Asian nations, especially for Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, who became what academics dubbed as the playground for proxy wars. Very difficult and the effects of which last even up till today because in our ASEAN Defence Minister's Meeting, we are still discussing issues of demining Cambodia, Laos; all relics and very real presence of consequences of the era. But ultimately, Communism did not triumph. 

The experience of being colonised and caught between global powers galvanised Southeast Asian nations to consolidate and protect their sovereignty, and ASEAN was formed in 1967.

If you look at today's situation compared to the situation which I just described, China, Japan the Republic of Korea, India and the ASEAN member states what they have experienced has surpassed expectations. Globally, a free-market economic system has been entrenched with Asia as its main engines. In 1982, economic reforms in China began in earnest when Deng Xiaoping declared that China would build "socialism with Chinese characteristics". I don't think people understood what that meant. The entry of the world's most populous nation into the capitalist economy, fuelled by China's science and technological capabilities and entrepreneurial energy, would fundamentally alter China itself and the world with it. Today, for a so-called communist country, there are already over 150 billionaires in China, more than any other nation except the US. China's GDP has also risen from approximately US$300 billion in 1980 to US$8,200 billion in 2012. This growth is virtuous. Some 680 million people were lifted above the line of extreme poverty as defined by the United Nations. By some estimates, in 2030, there will be approximately 1.4 billion middle class consumers in China, four times as many as that in the US and three times as many as that in Western Europe.

ASEAN too has progressed rapidly. Our combined population of 616 million people had a GDP of around US$2.3 trillion in 2012, larger than India's US$1.8 trillion. ASEAN's GDP is also projected to double by 2020, cementing our group's position as another engine of growth. 

India's entry into the global economy after 1980 has also resulted in very significant gains. Real GDP per capita more than tripled in India. In the decade to 2010, total US Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) stock in India increased by more than 10-fold over the same period. India is already among the top ten economies in the year, by GDP. Some project that India will become the world's third largest trading nation by 2030, accounting for about 5% of global trade.  

So overall, Asia's rise should be celebrated if you look at what happened prior to the 1950's to what has happened now in the last 50 years. Asia's rise is indeed what we have collectively worked for, fought and even died for. Asia's continued growth will benefit the World. According to the World Bank, East Asia and the Pacific will contribute 40% of global growth and one-third of global trade this year, higher than any other region in the world. The world needs Asia.

By any comparison with the past, therefore, Asia today is more wealthy and independent to chart its own future. But as history teaches us and as we remember events in 1914 that would lead to two World Wars, independence and wealth are no guarantors of peace and stability. Indeed with wealth and independence, Asian nations have witnessed a rising tide of nationalism. The resulting assertiveness has accentuated tensions and even precipitated conflicts. In the East China Sea, strong nationalist sentiments have been roused in both China and Japan over the Diaoyu / Senkaku Islands. Tit-for-tat deployments of patrol and naval vessels of both countries have occurred. Fighter jets have been scrambled to respond to aircraft overflights, and there have even been allegations of a fire-control radar locked on a country's destroyer. Strong reactions have also occurred in response to the recent Air Defence Identification Zone designated by China. While no physical incidents have occurred as yet, the risks are not theoretical. Some of you may remember that in May last year, a Taiwanese fisherman was shot and killed by the Philippine Coast Guard in the South China Sea. 

China, is carving out its place in a global order defined by the US, which has been the resident power in the region for the past fifty years. Emblematic of the risks that occur with shifting boats, the USS Cowpen came within 100m of a Chinese warship recently. Japan is reacting to China's rise and moving away from its post-WWII pacifism. This posture has generated unease on both the part of China as well as its regional neighbours in Southeast Asia. Korea, another US ally, is also watching China and Japan closely.

Wealth and independence of Asia has translated into rapid modernisation of militaries within the Asia-Pacific region. China's defence spending for 2012 currently stands at US$166 billion, second only to the US. In the same year, Japan spent US$60 billion on defence, equivalent to the UK and France. Its latest projected defence budget for Japan has announced plans to buy unmanned drones, fighters, naval destroyers and submarines. As a whole, Asia's nominal military expenditure has seen about 9% annual growth in the last four years, rising to US$287 billion in 2012. Asia's military spending has surpassed Europe's military spending.

Securing Peace, Ensuring Progress

How will Asia ensure its own security amid these rapid and deep changes? Two words sum up the aim of all our efforts - "strategic trust". Then-Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping said it in an official visit to the US in 2012 - "strategic trust is the foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation, and greater trust will lead to broader cooperation". Prime Minister Dung echoed this during his Keynote Address at last year's Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) – that there is a need to nurture greater strategic trust in the Asia-Pacific, because in his words "if trust is lost, all is lost". 

I would, therefore, suggest three essentials to build this trust. These three elements form the basis for an inclusive and robust regional security architecture.

First, positive engagement - countries need to engage in dialogue, to facilitate communication and promote understanding. Dialogues such as this and the MSC and the SLD in Singapore play a very useful role. One concrete example of positive outcomes was the "Eyes-in-the-Sky" initiative - a proposal raised by the current Malaysian Prime Minister, who was then-Defence Minister Najib Razak, at the 2005 Shangri-La Dialogue. Some of you remember then that the Straits of Malacca had a situation similar to the Gulf of Aden and there was piracy and Defence Minister Razak proposed joint maritime air patrols and this was accepted by Ministers of the littoral states. This is the reason why we have combined air patrols over the Malacca Strait by Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, with Thailand as a later participant. As a result of that initiative, the incidence of piracy attacks in the Malacca Strait came down sharply and Lloyd's removed the Malacca Strait from its list of war-risk zones in 2006. 

Second, dialogue must lead to practical cooperation to build understanding that precedes trust. Within the Asia-Pacific, this has been the main aim of the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM)-Plus. The ADMM-Plus allows defence establishments, and particularly the militaries, the opportunity to explore practical cooperation. Take for example our Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) and Military Medicine exercise held in June last year. It was substantive and involved 18 militaries, 3,000 troops, six ships, helicopters, as well as military medical, engineering and search and rescue teams. It allowed constructive engagement and practical cooperation between all 18 militaries, including the US, China and Japan. With soldiers working alongside each other, this exercise helped to build confidence, relations, and mutual trust. 

However, in order to continue the progress that the ADMM-Plus has made since its inauguration, the ADMM-Plus countries must continue to look forward and ask ourselves what are the next steps we should take. When Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines, many countries responded individually. The ADMM-Plus militaries could perhaps have been more effective working together. Not just in terms of strengthening cooperation in HADR responses, but also to address other regional security challenges. Some possible measures that have been proposed for reducing the risk of misunderstandings or mishaps in the South China Sea include the suggestion by Brunei to establish hotlines to maintain government-to-government contact, as well as Vietnam's proposal for a no-first-use of force agreement. These are positive suggestions that ASEAN will be considering. 

Third, political will and leadership is needed to anchor trust and cooperation for mutual benefits and goals. For example, it was encouraging to see the accommodative and open stance maintained by President Obama and President Xi Jinping during the bilateral summit in Sunnylands, California, last year. This sets the appropriate tone and example for all countries in the Asia-Pacific to navigate through the region's changing dynamics. Given that the US-China relationship is of paramount importance to regional and global stability, Singapore looks forward to continued leadership from both the US and Chinese governments to help achieve stability and progress for Asia, and the world.

Conclusion

Let me conclude. The onus is on leaders of the world today, and young leaders like yourselves of the world tomorrow, to reap the fruits of the hard-fought peace and stability in the wake of two world wars, and to keep us on the path of global development and growth. In doing so, it is imperative that leaders not just consider the present, but learn from the past, while looking forward to anticipate the future. I look forward to your views and frank and productive exchange of views as we consider how we can make the world a safer and better one. Thank you very much.