Speech by Minister for Defence, Dr Ng Eng Hen, at the 3rd Jakarta International Defense Dialogue (JIDD)

Topic: The Rise of Asia and New Geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific Region

Let me first say that it is a pleasure to be back in Indonesia again to meet up with old friends and renew acquaintances. I congratulate JIDD organisers and thank Pak Purnomo for inviting me to speak at this plenary alongside other distinguished speakers.

Rising Asia

For those of us at the opening ceremony and heard President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, he mentioned that as members of ASEAN, we are living in exciting times. Asia is rising. Asia's share of global trade has increased to 30% in the last decade. By 2030, China is projected to become the world's largest trading nation, with nearly 17% of global trade. India's share then will rise to 5.3%, the third largest in the world. Trade between Asian countries has also risen sharply. I just give you one metric to illustrate. China was not amongst ASEAN's top three trading partners a decade ago. Today, China is ASEAN's largest trading partner, as well as that of Australia, Japan and South Korea. Many of you are familiar with these trade figures.

A demographic tsunami is also on the horizon. In 10 years' time, China alone expects to have nearly 200 million college and university graduates. By 2020, China and India together will account for four out of every 10 university graduates globally. The workforce of ASEAN countries are also projected to grow. Many ASEAN countries will reap dividends. These demographic dividends from more skilled labour will have a profound effect on the flow of trade and talent across borders, not only in the region but globally.

As Asia's economies grow, countries in the region have also modernised their militaries. The figures are quite telling. Over the last decade, Asian countries' defence spending rose from US$177 billion to US$305 billion; a 72% increase compared to a 12% increase in Europe over the same period. Indeed, by one estimate, Asia’s absolute military spending is said to have overtaken Europe's in 2012.

New Geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific

We need to situate these dramatic changes of progress and military modernisation within a stable regional architecture that promotes stability. If we do not, the risks of friction, tension and conflict will rise.  Within this architecture, the US-China relationship is critical as it sets the context for other bilateral and multilateral relationships.

For our region, we must work together to de-escalate the tensions arising from territorial disputes in the South China and East China Seas. We must guard against growing nationalism in our region that can pit nation against nation. Together, Asia will prosper but disputes and conflicts will set us back for a long time.

Forging Strategic Dialogue and Practical Cooperation

ASEAN member states must re-double our efforts to build trust and goodwill. I agree completely with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono that we must build strategic trust Good progress has already been made. At the multilateral level there are security fora which facilitate strategic dialogue, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the Shangri-La Dialogue, and JIDD. At the regional level there are other groupings, such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) and the ADMM-Plus.

The ADMM-Plus is particularly useful in allowing ADMM-Plus militaries, including the US, China, Japan and India, to exercise and cooperate with one another to build confidence and understanding. In June this year, Brunei will host an ADMM-Plus HADR/Military Medicine exercise that will bring together the militaries of 18 ADMM-Plus countries in the same exercise. In September, Indonesia will also be hosting a Counter-Terrorism Exercise under the ADMM-Plus framework. ;

Conclusion

The rise of Asia is transforming geo-politics in the Asia-Pacific. But Asian countries must not forget that their growth and prosperity hinge on interdependence within Asia and with the rest of the world. We must all do our part to protect and strengthen the global commons of security, trade and the environment. Thank you.