Speech by Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen at the Munich Security Conference 2013

THE RISING POWERS AND GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

Introduction

Let me just first say that it is a pleasure to be in Munich with my fellow panellists, and I appreciate the opportunity to share views on this topic. I'd also want to start with the declaration that Singapore is not and never will be a rising power. For those of you who have been to Singapore, we are 700 square kilometres and five million people. But Singapore is a canary in the mine of global trade, and we are subject, even hostage, to the global commons, the rules and the consequences, and certainly, shifts in geopolitics and changes in power.

Rising Powers

From where Singapore sits, the rise of China and India has already impacted us and our region in fundamental ways. I just need to give some figures on trade. Prior to China's accession to the WTO in 2001, ASEAN - 10 member states, about 600 million people, GDP about 1.6 trillion now - ASEAN's top three trading partners were the United States, Japan and the EU, in that order. China is now ASEAN's largest trading partner. China is also the largest trading partner of Australia, Japan and South Korea. Between ASEAN and China, two-way trade has increased almost ten-fold over the last decade, it's now about 300 billion US dollars, compared to about US$200 billion for US, and EU about US$240 billion.

I think all of us recognise that China has become the leading manufacturer of the world, flooded the markets with made-in-China goods. But I'd also like to point out that there is another tsunami coming in about 10 years' time, from China. In 10 years' time, China expects to have nearly 200 million college and university graduates. Then, four out of every 10 university graduates will come from just two countries, China and India. I think this will have a profound impact on all of us, on the flow of trade and talent across borders, not only in our region but I think, globally.
Against this backdrop, I would like to make two points.

Central Importance of the US - China Relationship

The first is that the US-China relationship is central, indeed pivotal, to global stability. The US-China relationship sets the overall context for other bilateral and multilateral relationships that we've talked about. Understandably, it is the key preoccupation for us in ASEAN and the wider region. My learned colleague Dr Antonio says that we have to now both accommodate rising, resident and emerging powers, and that's absolutely true.
We must accommodate both US interests in the Pacific as a resident power and China, as a rising power. Hillary Clinton and President Xi Jinping have both stated that the Pacific is big enough to accommodate both powers. I think that's a decent start but certainly more needs to be done.
We recognise that strategic competition between US and China is reality, but this does not exclude, and indeed necessitates, that there be stronger cooperation between China and US to ensure global stability.
The US-China bilateral relationship must widen areas of mutual interest. The Strategic and Economic Dialogue has made progress but needs to be upsized in programmes and practical outcomes in the field of trade, commerce, cultural exchanges, people-to-people interactions and military collaboration.
For security, the US and China can build confidence and capacity in multilateral settings. I think both Mr Shivshankar and Antonio talked about this. And we talked about how existing institutions. I like the point that Shivshankar said, there is no shortage of multilateral institutions, and I agree. And we need to have credible results from institutions and leadership counts. I give you just one example of an evolving architecture in response to the shifts to accommodate resident and rising powers. And this is the ASEAN Defence Minister's Meeting. We felt the 10 ASEAN members and our Plus-eight partners of US, China, India, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, Australia, that there was a deficit in programmes that would allow military to military interactions. And Brunei is hosting ASEAN this year. For the first time, in the middle of this year, there will be an 18-nation full troop exercise in Brunei, with the themes of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief, and Military Medicine. Here, militaries of ASEAN countries, US, China, India, Japan, Australia and others will participate. I think this will be the first full-troop multilateral exercise that involves countries like the US and China.

Singapore also believes that the Asia Pacific region can benefit from the involvement of EU nations. The EU is a longstanding dialogue partner of ASEAN, and an active participant in the ASEAN Regional Forum.

Global Governance

My second point, I'd like to just make some brief comments on effective global governance, and I think my other co-panellists have spoken. I think that it should be anchored on three main principles.

First, global governance frameworks should be open and inclusive, and allow countries, big or small, to have a voice. I'm glad that Antonio talked about the G-20 and this is the reason why Singapore pushed for a connection between the G20 and the UN, in the form of the Global Governance Group, or 3G. It's the same reason why Singapore pushed in 1992 for the Forum of Small States at the United Nations.

Second, I think the principle is the rule of law must be the bedrock of global governance. We have to adhere to international law and international dispute resolution mechanisms.

And finally, I think in order for international institutions to be credible, they must deliver real results; and indeed, frameworks and institutions are necessary but insufficient and we need effective leadership. Thank you for your attention.

Question and Answer Session

Question to all panellists: When you look out at global governance, at solving problems, at partnerships, do you look at countries and judge them as partners partly based upon their regimes, whether they are democracies - how they play by the rules at home - or would you say let's go out and work with whatever countries we can that's willing to cooperate. How important is this question of regime type to the broader challenges that we face of building new institutions of global
governance?Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen: If I can give a perspective from ASEAN, 10 member states which are completely different in terms of per capita, for example. A per capita of about 500 US dollars, and 50 thousand (US dollars); Different histories, French, British, Dutch influence; Separated by great geographic distances and the various differences in development. We had always started with the principle that we had to be inclusive. And if you cast your mind back, the issues involving ASEAN when questions about Myanmar was brought up. ASEAN member states had always responded by saying that we needed to be patient. It was far better for Myanmar to be part of ASEAN, than it was for Myanmar to be outside ASEAN. And I think time has proven that to be true, in terms of the recent developments. So, no we don't necessarily look at the differences or expect differences within countries to resolve before we form those regional groupings. But we do have a set of principles which hopefully will guide us in the common areas that are for our mutual benefit.