Speech by Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen, at the Panel Discussion ''America, Europe and the Rise of Asia'', at the Munich Security Conference

I would like to start by positioning my remarks from the security perspective of Singapore, as a small nation state and as part of ASEAN, a regional grouping of 10 countries.

I would like to make three main substantive points.

First, economically, Asia is expected to do better than the rest of the World, and increase in its strategic weight.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by 2015, Asia will be comparable in size to the economies of the US and Europe combined. By 2030, Asia with its growing middle class will account for more than 40% of global output, exceeding the size of the G-7 economies combined. Developing Asia alone, will account for 43% of world consumption at that time.

ASEAN has about 600 million people and still relatively young, and is projected to grow to 700 million in 2030. ASEAN's combined GDP now is about US$3.12 trillion, purchasing power parity terms, slightly more than Germany's current GDP. The IMF predicts that by the end of the decade, ASEAN's GDP will increase by 50% to about US$5 trillion, exceeding Germany's projected GDP by a third in the same year.

Half of the world's shipping, by tonnage, as well as half of the world's oil tanker traffic sailing through the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca. For example, last year, around 80% of Japan's crude oil imports and 80% of China's crude oil imports, passed through the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.

We talked about the role of the European Union (EU) and the EU was ASEAN's 3rd biggest trade partner last year. EU's trade with Asia amounted to 40% of its total trade. These figures tell us that. European states cannot afford to be disengaged from our region, their present pre-occupations notwithstanding.

My second point, I agree with Vice Minister Zhang, that we will need an inclusive security architecture. This is required to accommodate rising aspirations and interests of individual countries in the Asia- Pacific region.

For over 60 years, the US has provided the security that underpins the stability and remarkable economic progress that all countries from Asia-Pacific have enjoyed.

In this regard, I would also like to quote from my erstwhile counterpart, the former Indonesian Minister of Defense, Dr Juwono Sudarsono. He was Minister of Defense from 1999-2000 and 2004-2009. And I quote,

"What is often understated is that Asia-Pacific Cooperation - the birth of ASEAN in 1967, APEC in 1989 and the East Asia Summit in 2005 - were made possible by America's pre-eminence.... America's "forward presence" provided vital "strategic assurance", guaranteeing regional and financial growth.

America's dominance over the global commons was the critical pillar enabling all East Asian export-based strategies, to develop their trade, finance, investment and banking reach"

America's deterrence critically maintained both intra-regional and trans-regional strategic balances as Japan, S Korea, Taiwan and China continued to enhance their economic, trade and investments interactions with South East Asia."

Former US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates says that the US is a resident power in Asia-Pacific and will continue to be so. Going forward, the US-China relationship is central to continuing regional stability and progress in this region. 

How US and China relate with member states of Northeast Asia and ASEAN will also impact this regional dynamic. I like to point out that significant changes have already taken place in economic trade. In 2009, China became the leading trading partner of ASEAN member states. China is now also the largest trading partner of Australia, Japan and South Korea.

In this regard, and I agree with Senator McCain, whether US and EU regain their economic vibrancy and competitiveness to grow, will impact security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region.

ASEAN and Singapore as one of its members have actively pushed for an inclusive regional security architecture.

We must re-double our efforts in existing fora that facilitate dialogue and cooperation such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Regional Forum, the Asia-Europe Meeting and the Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD). I like to say that we are making progress.

Of note, the EAS was strengthened last year when the US and Russia formally participated for the first time. Last year's SLD had a record 31 Ministerial-level delegates from 30 countries, including Chinese Defence Minister GEN Liang Guanglie and then-US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates.

My third point, compared to EU and the US, many countries within Asia are relatively "young", having gained Independence in the second half of the last century. These states and their institutions, the military institution included, are still evolving.

It is therefore important that US and Europe continue this strategic engagement in Asia to build cooperation and constructive partnerships so that we can continue to address pressing global problems together. In the last two decades alone in China, 400 million people were lifted out of poverty. I think that that the large populations in the Asia-Pacific region and the benefit for good behoves us to redouble our efforts to focus on that strategic engagement.

Thank you very much.