Promoting peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific through stable military-to-military relationships Before I begin, I would like to thank Governor Huntsman for his kind words. I was delighted when Ambassador Chan said that Governor Huntsman was going to chair the session. As you know, he is an old friend of Singapore. My thanks also go to the Center for a New American Security for this opportunity to speak to you this morning about peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. I want to thank Dr Cronin for hosting the discussion. As Governor Hunstman said, I am here to meet old friends in Washington. I will also visit one of our Air Force's fighter detachments located at Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho. Singapore is thankful to the US for hosting four of our Air Force training detachments - in Arizona, where we have two detachments, and in Texas and Idaho. This is testament indeed to the strong and close defence ties that we have.

The US' Continuing Role in Maintaining Peace and Stability in the Asia-Pacific I would to like begin with the US' continuing role in maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific, by stating the assertion that the US presence in our region has been a critical force for peace and stability for the past half a century. So when we say continuing role, we are specific in that this is the role that the US has played for half a century. This positive view of the US' influence in our region has been articulated by Singapore, a strategic partner of the US, but other leaders of Asian countries who are not traditional allies also share this perspective. If I could just give two quotes: Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said at last year's Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that "the United States has long been a modernising and moderating force within our region, supporting democratic institutions, improving governance and fostering respect for human rights." I would also like to share with you a second quote and this one comes from former Indonesian Defence Minister Dr Juwono Sudarsono who wrote in an article last year: "What is often understated is that Asia-Pacific Cooperation - the birth of ASEAN in 1967, APEC in 1989 and the East Asia Summit in 2005 - were made possible by America's pre-eminence... America's "forward presence" provided vital "strategic assurance", guaranteeing regional and financial growth."The US, to use a phrase that Former US Secretary Gates said, as a resident power in the Asia-Pacific region, provided the stability that facilitated the rise of the four "Asian Tigers" - Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea, as well as the spectacular rise of Japan's export-driven economy in the 1980s. China too has benefited from the order of the global commons in international trading and finance systems.

Governor Huntsman said how with the withdrawal of troops in Subic Bay, Singapore stepped forward; but it was for these reasons, believing that the US presence in the Asia Pacific was a critical force for stability that we facilitated US assets that are not based in Singapore. For these reasons, while US assets are not based in Singapore, we have for many years provided transit and logistics support, for US military ships and aircraft in our region, since the signing of an MOU in 1990In 2005, our Prime Minister and then-President George W. Bush further signed a Strategic Framework Agreement, to facilitate the US' continued presence in the region and enhance bilateral cooperation in defence and security. One manifestation of that increasing cooperation is the planned deployment of the US Navy's Littoral Combat Ships in Singapore.

Singapore believes that the US' presence in the Asia-Pacific region remains vital to maintaining peace and stability in the region. In this context, we welcome the US' renewed commitment to engage Asia. Last year, the US participated for the first time at the newly-expanded East Asia Summit in Indonesia. In 2009, the US announced the intention to participate in negotiations to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an economic partnership of Asia-Pacific countries.

Changing Dynamics in the Asia-Pacific

But going forward, and that is the central question that preoccupies many of us, how can the US as a resident power continue to play its positive role in the region and adjust to rising aspirations of powerhouse economies like China and India, as well as ASEAN?Allow me to provide some texture to the changing dynamics, by way of some salient numbers. China is currently the leading trade partner for ASEAN, Australia, Japan and South Korea in the region. According to one estimate, China's economy will grow to US$16.3 trillion in 2030, quadruple its present size The IMF projects that China could become the world's largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2016. India's economy is projected to grow to nearly US$6 trillion in 2030, five times its current size. By 2025, India is projected to overtake China as the most populous nation in the World.

Against the backdrop of shifting balances, the US-China relationship is the critical relationship that will affect peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. How will this US-China relationship be characterised, moving forward, especially with regard to military relations? On intent, there has been no shortage of goodwill statements from both US and China. Following President Hu Jintao's State Visit to the US last year , the Joint Statement read, "The United States and China affirmed that a healthy, stable, and reliable military-to-military relationship is an essential part of President Obama's and President Hu's shared vision for a positive, cooperative, and comprehensive US-China relationship. Both sides agreed on the need for enhanced and substantive dialogue and communication at all levels: to reduce misunderstanding, misperception, and miscalculation; to foster greater understanding and expand mutual interest; and to promote the healthy, stable, and reliable development of the military-to-military relationship."But in practice, much more work is needed to achieve this "healthy, stable and reliable military-to-military relationship" between US and China. The recent announcement of its "pivot" to Asia was read by some in China as a strategy for containment. Even the TPP initiative was cast by some in the same light. The US on its part has repeatedly asked China to be more transparent in its strategic intent, particularly with regard to its military build-up.

In maintaining peace and stability for the Asia-Pacific region, we need to also consider the bilateral relationships between US, China and ASEAN countries as well as other stakeholders within the Asia-Pacific region like Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. We recognise that there will be elements of competition, even strategic rivalry, in these relationships. But despite this, we must create opportunities to build common understanding and cooperation among the defence establishments of these countries.

An Open and Inclusive Regional Security Architecture that Promotes Dialogue and Builds Confidence

I've posted some questions, and I would now like to share ASEAN's and Singapore's views on how we think we can foster that common understanding and confidence building. To maintain stability, we must evolve a regional architecture for the Asia-Pacific region that brings together all key stakeholders in the region, and accommodates their interests and aspirations. ASEAN has therefore proposed and put considerable efforts into fostering such a regional architecture that brings together all key stakeholders in the region - including the US, China, India, and Russia - for dialogue and cooperation.

ASEAN is a key stakeholder in the region, with 600 million people, and a combined GDP of US$3.1 trillion. Most ASEAN Member States border the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, key sea lanes for global trade and commerce. By way of comparison for example, in 2010, China accounted for US$91.9 billion of US exports. ASEAN, with less than half China's population, accounted for about US$70 billion. ASEAN's strategic importance has been acknowledged by US leaders. President Obama, Defence Secretaries, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have made frequent visits to our part of the world. The US has also played a pivotal role in supporting the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus, or ADMM-Plus.

Let me elaborate a little on the ADMM-Plus. The ADMM-plus is a forum brings together the defence establishments of all ten ASEAN Member States, and eight "Plus" countries - the US, China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Russia. The ADMM-Plus framework acts as a key anchor of a robust, effective, open, and inclusive regional security architecture, to address common security challenges and promote stability in the region.

The inaugural ADMM-Plus in 2010 agreed to go beyond dialogue, to provide platforms for practical cooperation among the 18 ADMM-Plus militaries. To enhance military-to-military interactions, five Experts' Working Groups (EWGs) were established for a start, in these areas - humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, maritime security, peacekeeping operations, counter-terrorism and military medicine. Through these EWGs, militaries of ADMM-Plus members are working together on joint exercises to build confidence and mutual understanding.

The US' participation in this regional security architecture is indispensable. The US was the first of the eight "Plus" countries to accept the invitation to join the ADMM-Plus two years ago. The US currently co-chairs with Indonesia the ADMM-Plus EWG on Counter-Terrorism, and is in fact meeting in Washington over the next few days to hold a workshop and plan for an exercise. Such a move towards the ADMM-Plus militaries exercising together is a significant one. Militaries working together can enhance transparency, comfort levels, and build trust and confidence and reduce the risk of miscalculations and conflict.

Platforms like the ADMM-Plus and the annual Shangri-La Dialogue are also essential to allow defence leaders of countries to exchange views and perspectives. Then-Secretary Gates and the Chinese Defence Minister GEN Liang Guanglie, as well as other non-ASEAN Defence Ministers, met ASEAN Defence Ministers for a good exchange of views at the inaugural ADMM-Plus in Vietnam. The next ADMM-Plus will be in 2013 in Brunei.

Conclusion

As the balance of the world's strategic and economic weight shifts towards the Pacific, it is vital to evolve a regional security architecture which accommodates all stakeholders and rising aspirations. Relationships marked predominantly by strategic rivalry will increase the risks of friction and conflict. We must therefore engage in ways to increase understanding and confidence among defence establishments. The US, as a resident power, should continue to play its dominant role in maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific. It can do so effectively within the regional security architecture, to improve relationships at bilateral and multilateral levels.

Ladies and gentlemen, I look forward to hear your insights, and continue the conversation on how we can maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Thank you very much.