Keynote Address by Mr Teo Chee Hean, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence at the 12th Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)

Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. To those visiting us for the twelfth Asia Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers or APPSMO, a warm welcome to Singapore.

Security Risks in a More Uncertain RegionThe global financial crisis two years ago has accelerated the shift in global economic weight towards Asia, and this will concomitantly result in shifts in the strategic situation in the region. The rising Asian powers will have new and expanded interests such as access to energy, trade routes and markets, and will seek to safeguard them. In some instances this will lead them to seek cooperation with others who share the same interests, but there is also the potential for increased competition and friction with each other and the more established powers. This heightens the risks of misunderstanding and miscalculation as States adjust to these new realities.

Apart from traditional security challenges, regional peace and prosperity also remain vulnerable to many new types of trans-boundary threats. The same global interconnections that promote economic growth also facilitate the rapid spread of these non-traditional security threats into and within the region. Asia-Pacific countries continue to be affected by piracy, natural disasters such as typhoons and earthquakes, new infectious diseases, and the persistent threat of transnational terrorism. This year's APPSMO therefore takes place against a backdrop of new security challenges, with recent reminders that we cannot take regional stability for granted.

Recent Security Developments in the Asia-PacificThe past year has seen both ups and downs for regional stability in the Asia-Pacific. On the upside, bilateral relationships between a number of the key countries remain stable. The US and Japan have reached agreement on the way forward over the basing issue in Okinawa. In North-East Asia, trilateral relations between China, Japan and the Republic of Korea also remain positive, with the successful hosting of the third Trilateral Summit in May this year.

On the downside, however, the rising tension on the Korean peninsula brought about by the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan in March is a reminder of how irresponsible acts of provocation could destabilise the entire region. The security situation there remains of serious concern, in particular the potential for proliferation of nuclear weapons. The recent differences in the US-China relationship also bear watching. This is a complex relationship that contains elements of cooperation and competition. The bilateral defence relationship appears to be strained, with the suspension of high-level defence visits. However, the high-level bilateral strategic dialogue co-chaired by their foreign affairs and economic ministers continues, as well as some professional military exchanges. Neither side wants their differences to escalate to the point of conflict, and both sides appear to see the need to engage each other constructively, and to manage their disagreements in peaceful ways. Underlying Security Challenges for the RegionApart from short-term developments, we can discern some key security challenges in the Asia-Pacific which will require concerted and collective effort to manage. First, the safety and security of sea lines of communication - the arteries that connect the Asia-Pacific together. Southeast Asia in particular is an important region where key straits used for international navigation, such as the Malacca and Singapore Straits are located. Continued safe and secure transit through these straits will be of concern to many nations. Over 50,000 vessels transit the Straits of Malacca and Singapore every year, including tankers carrying an estimated 15 million barrels of oil a day to the most populous Asian countries such as China and Indonesia. These same vessels also ply the South China Sea which is the maritime gateway to three of the world's five busiest ports. These sea lanes are vital to long-term regional stability and prosperity, and we all need to work together to keep access to them open, safe and secure for all to use.

In the Gulf of Aden, we have seen how a breakdown in law and order in a littoral state has given rise to piracy which continues to threaten the safety of this international waterway. With the interconnected global economy, a threat to maritime shipping in one segment of the sea routes could raise shipping and insurance costs, and ultimately harm the economic well-being of everyone. Therefore, the freedom and safety of maritime navigation in Southeast Asian waters is an important concern for us all.

Successful cooperative efforts among the littoral states to establish the Malacca Strait Patrols, and also between littoral and user states through the IMO-sponsored Co-operative Mechanism , has resulted in effective multinational cooperation that has reduced the incidence of piracy and sea-robberies benefitting the region as a whole.

The principles of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea or UNCLOS, were used to arrive at the form and nature of these cooperative efforts. UNCLOS provides a useful basis to guide the way that various claims to maritime zones and jurisdiction over sea areas can be resolved. UNCLOS was carefully negotiated to balance the interests of coastal States in exercising certain rights over adjoining waters, and the equally important interests of user States for their ships and aircraft to exercise their rights of navigation and overflight. With globalisation, countries will increasingly find that they are both coastal States, as well as user States of sea lanes which are far beyond their own shores. Hence, we all have an interest in ensuring that the international norms in UNCLOS are universally respected.

Separately, globalisation also facilitates recruitment by terrorist groups, self-radicalisation, and the copycat transfer of terrorist methods, through the internet and the international travel network. The recent wave of detentions in regional countries, including in Singapore, shows that this threat has not abated. In April this year, we detained a young Singaporean who had become self-radicalised by listening to the online lectures of radical ideologues. In June, we also placed restriction orders on an unaccredited religious teacher and his student, the former for disseminating extremist material, and the latter for attempting to participate in armed jihad overseas. This follows the arrest of twelve men in Malaysia in January as part of a broader international terrorist investigation.

But even with the successful arrest of terrorists, there remain significant challenges in effectively de-radicalising and rehabilitating terrorist detainees. Many of the jail terms of the Jemaah Islamiyah members who were arrested in Indonesia following the 2002 Bali and 2003 Jakarta bombings are coming to an end in the next few months. Constant vigilance and effective community efforts to reintegrate these individuals are needed to prevent them from returning to their terrorist ways. An added worry is the spread of extremist ideologies to other prisoners in the prisons where these detainees are held. This could lead to the radicalisation of other prisoners, expanding the pool of potential operatives as the terrorist detainees as well as other prisoners are released. Managing Uncertainty: New Opportunities for Dialogue and Cooperation Although these challenges that I have highlighted pose real risks to regional security, they also present opportunities for security cooperation between States. Many of these problems affect us all, particularly as the web of interdependence within the region continues to grow. These are complex problems that cannot be solved by a single country, or even a small group of countries. Hence, we have a shared interest in working together to ensure that risks are managed and threats are neutralised early, and conflicts prevented.

To this end, we see more countries coming together and engaging in multilateral dialogue to find solutions to these challenges. The regional security architecture in the Asia-Pacific contains a good mixture of different platforms for such discussions. On one level, we have broad, pan-regional, dialogue-based frameworks such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and the Shangri-La Dialogue. These forums provide opportunities for the exchange of views on regional security issues, helping to build greater trust and mutual confidence between States. The Shangri-La Dialogue, in particular, is an unique forum that encourages the free and frank exchange of views. It is continuing to affirm its usefulness and relevance. Last year the keynote speaker was then Australian Prime Minister Rudd, and this year it was President Lee Myung Bak of South Korea. Both these regional leaders used the Shangri-la Dialogue to make key statements on their foreign and security policy. At its sidelines, the US, Japan and South Korea held their trilateral meeting to discuss tensions on the Korean Peninsula. On another level, we have more focused, formal regional groupings such as ASEAN, the East Asia Summit and the new ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting Plus or ADMM-Plus meeting. Given their more focussed membership, they have the potential to address more specific agendas, and turn ideas discussed at broader forums like the SLD into practical action for cooperation. In particular, the ADMM-Plus will hold its inaugural meeting in Hanoi in October this year, involving the Defence Ministers of ASEAN and the eight "Plus" countries, Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the United States, key partners who can add to the security of the region.

Other platforms for States to engage in practical cooperative activities are also playing a useful role. For example, the Five Power Defence Arrangements or FPDA will celebrate its 40th anniversary next year. And the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP) brings together fifteen countries for practical cooperation including information-sharing and capacity-building activities.

The Role of the Military in Dialogue and CooperationThe military has a very important role to play in both multilateral defence dialogue and practical security cooperation. Regional militaries participate in pan-regional dialogue and professional exchanges at a wide range of multilateral forums, including at the Shangri-La Dialogue and the Western Pacific Naval Symposium. Other examples include the Chiefs of Defense Conference co-hosted annually by the US Pacific Command and the host country, and new forums such as the Asia-Pacific Intelligence Chiefs Conference. These platforms complement and enhance the already extensive network of bilateral interactions between regional militaries.

It is also important that militaries interact in practical exercises and operational frameworks for security cooperation. By working with each other in these practical ways, regional militaries will build up comfort levels, develop friendly professional relationships between individual military officers, and improve mutual understanding of each others' viewpoints and constraints. This will reduce the risk of tensions escalating into untoward incidents or conflict.

More fundamentally, multinational cooperation is a necessity to tackle the complex security challenges confronting us. When regional militaries come together though arrangements that allow all stakeholders to play a part, in a flexible way in accordance with their means and circumstances, these efforts can deliver real security dividends for all parties. In this region, the Malacca Strait Patrols have helped to reduce the incidence of pirate attacks in the Malacca Strait. Through the participation of international liaison officers at the Information Fusion Centre in Singapore, where information on the sea situation picture is fused, analysed and disseminated, we hope to further enhance maritime security in regional waterways by enabling the early detection of maritime threats and timely responses to them. ConclusionLadies and gentlemen,Alongside other forums, the APPSMO continues to provide an opportunity for senior officers from regional militaries to understand current security issues, and engage in frank exchanges of views in a friendly and informal setting. The programme aims to stimulate discussion and sharing of ideas on how we can cooperate better, to jointly contribute to the security of our region. I am pleased to welcome all participants to this year's APPSMO, and wish you a week of lively and engaging interactions ahead. Thank you.