Speech by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Teo Chee Hean at 11th Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers

Good morning distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. To those of you who have travelled from abroad to join us, welcome to Singapore. The Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers or APPSMO, was established ten years ago, as a place where officers from across the Asia-Pacific could meet to discuss issues in a frank and open manner. The one-week programme gives time for officers to get to know one another, build up a certain level of comfort, and benefit from the candid discussions that might not be possible during official meetings. This year's APPSMO is being held at a particularly interesting time. Over the last few years, we have seen broad strategic shifts taking place in Asia, with new powers on the rise. The global financial crisis has further accelerated these shifts. We have seen the G8 become the G20, and now there is even talk of the G2. At the same time, we are seeing a new security landscape take shape where the US will remain the strongest global power, but with other rising powers such as China and India seeking to assert themselves more strongly. The old paradigm for crisis-management where states move along the continuum of peace-crisis-war may no longer be adequate to describe the relationships which are evolving in the region. In this new landscape, we see elements of cooperation, competition, and conflict co-existing in the relationships between states, in particular the major players. Let me elaborate.

Cooperation, Competition, and Conflict It is said that nations have no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests. Yet in a fast-moving and fast-changing world, even interests change and evolve. The interests of countries now intersect with those of a whole host of other countries, in sometimes bewildering ways. For example, countries that were not neighbours and hence had no territorial disputes, now find themselves sharing borders in their maritime zones - their Exclusive Economic Zones, or now their Continental Shelves. What was previously abundant in a region may now become a scarce resource - one example is water. Human activity has reached such a scale that it can have large-scale trans-boundary impacts on neighbouring countries and regions - through acid rain, haze or maritime pollution. Changes in population or the ability of the land to support populations can motivate the mass migration of people. Similarly, what were once important may no longer be so important as new alternatives present themselves, for example new sources of raw materials or energy. In short, there are more and more areas of inter-dependence but also more areas of potential conflict in today's globalised world.

Countries are looking more closely at their portfolio of interests and re-evaluating them. Their portfolios have become more wide-ranging and complex. Within these portfolios, states can cooperate in a particular area of mutual interest, while in other areas, they may compete. In some areas, there will be sharp and important differences that may escalate to the point of conflict. But short of coming to actual blows, in the entire portfolio of interests, there is room for cooperation, competition, and conflict between states to co-exist across different areas of interest. When a country today views its bilateral relationships with another country, it is no longer in terms of the game theory construct of a single, zero-sum game. Instead, it is series of repeated games as countries interact with one another repeatedly, over decades. Through each game or issue that they have to manage together, they signal to each other and even others who are watching their motives and interests. Over time, each side has a better sense of how the other will play the game. Because they must interact repeatedly, it is less appealing to seek short-term gains at the expense of the other party. As a result, despite conflicting interests, it is possible for countries to move from a situation of conflict or competition to longer term cooperation.

In the Asia-Pacific, the big question on everyone's minds is the future direction of US-China relations. The recent US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue showed that the US-China relationship can be warm and constructive. Both countries have signaled firm commitment to the economic well-being and stability of the Asia-Pacific. This mutual desire for stable ties reflects the appreciation by both sides of the high degree of economic inter-dependence between the US and China. The US relies on China to buy up Treasury bills, to fund their growing budget deficit. China holds much of their foreign exchange reserves in US dollars. This means that the value of Chinese reserves is very much tied to the health of the US economy. As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner have noted, citing a Chinese proverb: "When you are in a common boat, you need to cross the river peacefully together."In other areas, however, we see elements of competition between the US and China. Even though China's economy and financial reserves are currently tied to the well-being of the US economy and dollar, China has initiated moves to make the Chinese yuan a global currency, inking a series of currency swap agreements this year with countries ranging from Argentina to Indonesia. China has also called for a new reserve currency to replace the US dollar. We will all be watching closely how US-China economic cooperation and competition evolves in the coming years. Even as we see elements of cooperation and competition on the economic front, we also see elements of conflict on another front. Earlier this year, the US protested over how Chinese vessels had maneuvered very closely to a US naval surveillance vessel, the USNS Impeccable, in the South China Sea. China, on its part, lodged a protest with the US over the activities of the Impeccable, which it considered to have breached international and Chinese laws. This incident is one in a series of similar incidents that have fortunately not escalated to further tensions. However, on other issues where there are common interests, such as North Korea, the US and China have shown that they are able to build up a degree of trust and cooperation, through the Six-Party Talks.

The Regional Security Architecture In a security landscape where there are co-existing elements of cooperation, competition, and conflict, it is important that we have a robust regional security architecture that gives everyone a stake in maintaining peace and stability. Such a security architecture must be open and inclusive, so as to provide a platform for the big powers and other countries to work together, through dialogue and mutual trust, to resolve issues of concern. In the Asia-Pacific, the regional security architecture is still evolving. But multilateral cooperation can slowly be built up based on the shared interests that states have. One such shared interest is secure sea lanes and freedom of navigation, given the increased importance of international trade within the region. Cognisant of this shared interest, states in the region have come together through initiatives like the 14-country Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships in Asia or ReCAAP, to combat the threat posed by piracy to our sea lanes. More recently, countries from all over the world have sent ships to the Gulf of Aden to protect the freedom of navigation and secure the sea lanes, in response to UN Security Council resolutions. These ships, though they may operate under different national or multi-national operational chains of command, are able to at least loosely coordinate their efforts; and have succeeded to some extent in reducing the number of piracy incidents in the Gulf of Aden.

States in the region also have shared interests in counter-proliferation and counter-terrorism. We need only look back a few weeks to the bombings of the Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels in Jakarta to remind ourselves of the threat posed by terrorism, and how the struggle against terrorism is far from over. These attacks are a reminder that countries in the region need to cooperate and share information to defeat this common threat. One recent illustration of such cooperation was the arrest in April this year of the Singaporean Jemaah Islamiyah leader Mas Selamat Kastari by the Malaysian Special Branch working together with Singapore's Internal Security Department. These two agencies have had a longstanding, cooperative relationship, which goes back many years. Cooperation in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief or HADR is another area where countries in the region have shared interests. All of us remember the devastating effect of disasters such as Cyclone Nargis in Southern Myanmar or the Sichuan earthquake in China. No country, no matter how big, can muster on its own all the resources and capabilities necessary to deal with a large-scale disaster. Here, countries in the region have come together through forums such as ASEAN, the ASEAN Regional Forum, and the Shangri-La Dialogue to address how they can work together more effectively to deal with this challenge. These are just some areas in which our shared interests have led to cooperation, rather than competition or conflict. Our aim must be to progressively widen this body of shared interests, and move from conflict or competition to cooperation in securing these shared interests. An understanding of shared interests comes best through open dialogue. Only through open dialogue can countries recognise where their common interests lie. It is about saying: "This is an area of interest for us." And hearing the reply: "Indeed, this is also an area of concern for us. Let us work together." Through this process, more and more shared interests between countries will appear, making it clearer where countries can cooperate. Over time, as we build wider and deeper shared interests in a larger regional community, the chances of conflict can be reduced. Where there are disputes, it is important for states to commit themselves to peacefully resolve these disputes based on dialogue and international law. The South China Sea is one area where the potential for conflicts is high. There are a number of competing territorial claims by countries bordering the South China Sea. Now, with the new Continental Shelf claims, as well as activities by states to assert these claims, tensions could rise. This would have a negative impact on regional stability, as well as access to sea lanes - and would not be in anyone's interest.

The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea or UNCLOS, which created dispute resolution regimes and mechanisms, is especially relevant in this regard. UNCLOS is a carefully drafted treaty that balances the interests of coastal states with the equally important interests of user states, benefitting all parties. States would do well to continue to support this important legal framework, and resolve their disputes in accordance with UNCLOS. It is also heartening that the ASEAN member states and China had in 2002 concluded a Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. Under this declaration, the parties undertake to resolve their territorial disputes by peaceful means, without resorting to the threat or use of force. They are now working towards a Code of Conduct, which will be useful in providing guiding principles for cooperation and the management of disputes. The Role of the Military Professional The role of militaries remains of great relevance, especially during a period where broad strategic shifts are taking place, and the portfolio of interests of states is expanding and in flux.

As the strategic landscape changes, so too does the role of the military professional. Training used to focus on tactics, strategy, and doctrine, as well as leadership and team-building. But today, there are other important skills that military officers, especially our senior officers, must possess. These are the multifaceted skills of the frontline diplomat - political savviness, cultural adeptness, a familiarity with international law, and the ability to build trust and consensus. Such skills are critical in defence diplomacy, in multinational operations, and in peace-building. Our servicemen must be able to work with servicemen from other countries, local leaders, and NGOs on the ground. They must have a keen sense of what is acceptable or unacceptable in the context of where they are operating. And they must be able to make the right decision, despite imperfect information, fast-moving events, and competing interests. In line with the theme of the military officer as frontline diplomat, who needs to foster cooperation with foreign counterparts across many challenging issues, I hope that the upcoming week's programmes are useful to you. As you look for opportunities and ways to cooperate with your counterparts from other countries over a variety of security issues, it could be said that all of you here today are players in a series of complex games which are multi-player and iterative, i.e. played with the same sets of counterparts again and again. You may only meet at APPSMO today to get to know one another, to signal friendship and understanding. Nevertheless, I am sure that you are likely to meet again in the future as you rise in rank, and in the course of your work. Build on your new found friendships to forge cooperation between your countries. This is the long term value of APPSMO as it plays a niche role in our regional security architecture by fostering friendship and cooperation among military officers. Let me conclude by wishing you a productive week ahead, full of lively and frank discussion.

Thank you.