The Ambassador of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, His Excellency

Mahmoud Daifallah Mahmoud Hmoud,

Permanent Secretary (Defence),

Chief of Defence Force,

Service Chiefs,

Senior Commanders,

Graduates of the 50th Command and Staff Course,

20th Command and Staff Course (National Service),

12th and 13th Command and Staff Course (Executive),

Distinguished Guests,

Ladies and Gentlemen.

Good evening.

In military colleges all over the world, the Command and Staff Course represents the pinnacle of leadership and management courses. Which is why, often in our defence exchange agreements with many countries, they ask for (cross participation in each other's Command and Staff courses) as an item. Because once you add that item into your defence agreements, it signals trust, because (by doing so) you are building up mutual trust among the senior echelons of your military leadership. And therefore, tonight is a proud and significant milestone for all 222 graduates – among them, 46 National Service (NS) commanders, one Singapore Police Force officer and 23 international officers, the largest contingent of international officers we have had. Let me wish all of you our heartiest congratulations.

STRONG LEADERSHIP IS CRUICIAL

Tonight marks the completion of the 50th Command and Staff Course. For those who are familiar with our SAF history, you would know that the original college campus was in Fort Canning. And it was opened by Mr Lee Kuan Yew, our founding Prime Minister, in February 1970. What you probably do not know, or some of you may not know, is that barely four days later, the first (Command and Staff) course started, with 26 students. Obviously, Mr Lee and Dr Goh Keng Swee, our first Defence Minister, saw clearly the cardinal need for strong and competent leaders for the SAF, as a critical underpinning of the security and stability of our newly independent nation. Without good commanders at the top, the progress of any military force would be limited.

(There is) the Chinese idiom "千军易得，一将难求", an army of thousand soldiers is easy to raise, but one good general is hard to find. I find this Chinese idiom most politically incorrect but China, an ancient civilisation that has fought countless wars over thousands of years, nevertheless came to that conclusion. Why did they come to this conclusion? Because while good soldiers are essential, only commanders can prevent wars, and if battle is inevitable, save lives through quick and decisive victories. For Singapore, with a modernised military, we need both good soldiers and competent commanders. But with our manpower constraints, unlike China, both good soldiers and competent commanders are hard to come by, even with National Service. So I do not think the first part of the idiom applies to us. But the better and stronger our military leaders are, the more secure Singapore will be.

And if there is ever a time for our generation when strong leadership is crucial, it would be now. After 70 years of relative peace post WWII, we are seeing before our eyes, the potential unravelling of institutions and mechanisms which first promoted, and then buttressed, that period of peace. Some of you may have heard of the oft repeated tongue-in-cheek "Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention", which was popularised by Thomas Friedman, the New York Times columnist. And the theory goes that as long as there are golden arches – McDonald's – in two countries, those two countries would not ever fight a war. Even if that were an over-simplification, there is some truth. When your companies are in each other's countries, you have a vested interest not to come to blows.

CHALLENGES OF THE FUTURE

Trade is usually the last sector to be affected when relations between countries deteriorate. Meetings between diplomats and defence officials can be cancelled but still, the exchange of goods and services would continue. So I do react with concern when "trade wars" are on the rise. Not only because it affects real economies, jobs and livelihoods, but more importantly because the necessary pre-conditions for peace are weakened. Trade frictions have increased substantially and become commonplace over the past decade, even between countries who have been strong, traditional allies, like the US and EU. The US won its case against Airbus at the WTO and tariffs can now be slapped on the EU. But the WTO will soon rule on the case brought by the EU against Boeing, and one can expect further tit-for-tat if that ruling favours the EU, allowing it to impose its own retaliatory tariffs on US imports.

I started with trade even though this is a Command and Staff Course, because trade and security are but two faces of the same coin. And the utmost priority of military leaders everywhere is to strive for peace.  For small countries like Singapore, who are "price-takers" in geopolitics, we watch the turn of global events with increasing alarm and consternation. It is obvious that the strategic rivalry between the US and China has sharpened considerably. But beyond that, the common ground on which countries can work together has also shrunk, either through neglect or design. It is not because the transnational challenges that confront us all have diminished. Indeed, on the contrary, the common security challenges we all must tackle together have grown. There is another saying, "we must all hang together, or we shall all hang separately".  Overall, the risks to global stability have gone up.

Terrorism continues to be a clear and present danger to all parts of the world, despite the weakening and dismembering of ISIS, including the death of their leaders. Indeed, ASEAN must step up our efforts as returning fighters and foreign fighters have already heading back, and more are coming back. The numbers will grow. The Jihadist ideology will not weaken even if ISIS is in disarray. Because just like the Al-Qaeda wave before it, that ideology remains a threat as it can easily infect some other splinter group to be the anointed vehicle for yet another wave.

Climate change will have a huge and unpredictable impact on security.  Flooding of communities with massive displacements of persons, reduction in scarce resources leading to water wars, and devastation due to extreme weather are but some of the high impact scenarios. No single country, no matter how large its military, is or can be ready for these consequences. When they occur, it will require coordinated multinational efforts to deal with the inevitable dangers posed to lives and property.

I have not even touched on the core theme of military relations as a global security challenge. And even then, it is obvious that we need strong military leaders to rise to all the challenges that will come our way. As senior leaders in your respective militaries and security agencies, you must do your part to strengthen confidence-building measures through defence diplomacy. Our current system of multilateralism has its flaws and some of the rules do need fixing for a fairer playing field. But we must not jettison or break that system because the alternatives will be much worse. 

This generation of military commanders will also have to deal with the impact of disruptive technologies. Advances in machine learning, artificial intelligence, increasing automation, exploitation of cyber and outer space and hypersonic weaponry will bring about another Revolution in Military Affairs. It will impact vocations, units, and even entire formations. Modern militaries will have to restructure to remain relevant, let alone effective. This will be another big challenge as you lead your units through these changes.

LEADERS OF THE FUTURE

My survey of the landscape is not meant to frighten, but to gear you up for the challenges ahead. Your leadership at critical moments can make that positive difference, and I hope that the GKS Command and Staff Course would have provided you the wherewithal and ethos to excel in your future command appointments.

At this juncture, I want to especially commend the 46 NS officers who graduate tonight. As NS officers with civilian jobs and commercial responsibilities, they had to go the extra mile to complete the course.  I know that for many of you and your family members, it meant sacrifices and personal struggles. That you persevered to complete the course shows the dedication and commitment of our NSmen.

This year, as I said, we have the highest number of international officers attending the course since its inception – 23 in total from 15 countries, and with the Kingdom of Jordan sending an officer to attend the course for the first time. Besides being an endorsement of the stature of the College, this is also a reflection of the close ties that Singapore has built and shares with many countries. Beyond the professional exchanges, the friendships and ties which you have built up with your course mates can prove invaluable in the future.

There was also another grand achievement, 24 to be precise, and this time by the wives of our graduates. 24 babies, including two from our international officers, are now honorary members of the GKS "born-during-the-course" Baby Alumni. Congratulations to all the parents of the newborns.

CONCLUSION

Once again, well done and congratulations to all our graduates. I look forward to the contributions that each of you will make, as you return to your units and your countries. I wish everyone here an enjoyable evening. Thank you.