TRUST AND REGIONAL SECURITY: RESPONSE TO A VOLATILE, UNCERTAIN, COMPLEX AND AMBIGUOUS (VUCA) WORLD

A very good evening commanders, cadets and welcome to all our cadets from the overseas countries, distinguished participants of this SAFTI International Cadets' Conference (SICC) 2019.

The SICC aims to be the platform of choice to bring together future military leaders from 18 countries to share perspectives on pertinent issues of our time today, forge lasting bonds and friendships, as well as strengthen the common ground amongst our armed forces. It is very timely that young people like yourselves, future commanders are coming together to think about the future that will affect all of you I also hope that the camaraderie that you have established with one another will seed the trust and mutual understanding amongst the leaders of our militaries of tomorrow, which you all will be. And with that, I hope that our countries will continue to enjoy the fruits of closer partnership and stronger mutual understanding for yet another generation.

I want to start off this evening by sharing with you, the historical perspectives of where we were, where we are and where we can go.

Setting Aside Differences: A Historical Context

As military officers, you know very well your role and the significance of the military to your own respective countries and of course to us in Singapore. Historically, militaries have been associated with conflict.

Anglo-Dutch Treaty of 1824

For example, even in our region, frequent clashes and contestations had marked more than two centuries of rivalry between the British and the Dutch in this part of the world between the 1600s and the 1800s. Incidentally for those who are not aware, Singapore commemorates its 200 years or our Bicentennial this year. At that time, British intentions to establish a trading post on Singapore had agitated the Dutch, who since 1816, had resumed control of the East Indies. They interpreted British actions as an encroachment into their sphere of influence, and what followed was a period of intense territorial and trade disputes between both countries in a region far away from their own.

Then came the turning point, after several years of negotiations between both governments. An agreement was eventually reached in the 1824 Treaty of London, and in the spirit of setting aside differences for mutual benefit, both powers also agreed to allow free communication between the locals of their ports, and cooperate in the suppression of piracy.

Despite World War I and the resulting tension between colonial powers and their colonies, the region - our region here continued to enjoy more than a hundred years of relative peace and prosperity - up until it was surrendered to the Japanese during the Second World War.

Formation of ASEAN

In the years following the end of the Second World War, the region was filled with tensions and conflicts. Two sources of friction were evident then. Firstly, every country had a bone to pick with its neighbours over historical overlapping territorial claims or ideological differences. Secondly, ongoing world events and the power vacuum caused by the British withdrawal meant that major powers had the opportunity and vested interest in gaining a degree of influence in the region.

To cite an example: Konfrontasi was borne out of Indonesia's non-acceptance of Malaysia's formation, of which Singapore was a part of. And this conflict even extended to the MacDonald House Bombing in 1965. Singapore would go on to execute the bombers in 1968 despite Indonesia's objections, and this was a point of contention and disagreement between the two nations. Our late founding Prime Minister, Mr Lee Kuan Yew stressed the inviolable need to uphold our sovereignty, but also recognised the need to set aside this episode for the better of the region. So the turning point came when Mr Lee made his first official visit to Indonesia in May 1973, when he and the late Bapak Suharto, the president of Indonesia then, decided for Indonesia and Singapore to move forward together.

In a larger Cold War context, Southeast Asia was an area of contestation between the United States and the Soviet Union. In Indo-China, the Vietnam War was raging on, with the North and the South supported by the Communist powers (Soviet Union and China), and the United States and its allies respectively. Many other countries also had to deal with communist elements brewing within their country's government, being pressured to align themselves with one major power or the other, and thus in different ideological camps at times.

However, one of the most pivotal moments in Southeast Asian history was how the region came together in unity, having recognised that it was vital for our survival in the international arena. This common understanding then saw the original five founding members of ASEAN - Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore - band together to push for regional peace and stability. A regional organisation like ASEAN enabled differences and territorial disputes to be set aside for the greater good of a better future. The foreign minister of Thailand at the time, and co-founder of ASEAN, Tun Thanat Khoman stated the crucial need "to erase the old and obsolete concept of domination and subjection of the past and replace it with the new spirit of give and take, of equality and partnership."

Since the signing of the 1967 Bangkok Declaration that led to the birth of ASEAN, three principles have transcended time. First: members of ASEAN pledged to a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other members; second: they agreed to the process of making decisions by consensus; and third: they were fully committed to the centrality of ASEAN. Together, these make up the elements that created the "ASEAN Way".

That the nations of ASEAN enjoyed five decades of uninterrupted peace is by no means accidental. Since 1967 till now, we have relatively uninterrupted peace because of what we have done in ASEAN. This afforded member countries time to focus attention and devote resources to nation building and economic development.

Period of Cooperation and Growth

For all the talk on subscribing to a unified set of rules and putting aside our differences, you may be wondering how exactly this stability contributed to the growth of the region. Besides the facilitation of intra-region trade and commerce, regional stability and security made the region attractive to foreign investments and capital.

For about 25 years from 1970 to 1995, ASEAN's GDP grew at an average rate of 7.0 percent per annum, and Southeast Asia today has a total market of about 640 million people and a combined GDP of close to US$3 trillion. ASEAN is now the fifth largest trading entity in the world after the European Union, China, the United States and Japan.

Singapore's Growth

Singapore has equally prospered as a result of this regional peace and stability. Fifty-four years ago, when Singapore first gained her independence, our GDP per capita was around 500 US dollars in 1965. Fast forward five decades later, this figure has grown more than a hundred times to 55,000 US dollars today.

Singapore's secret to achieving first-world economic status from third-world in a single generation is very much tied to the reason for ASEAN's prosperous growth: Openness to international trade and cooperation, within a stable regional political climate and security architecture. Our trade volume is more than three times our GDP, the second highest in the world. To date, we have signed 24 Free Trade Agreements with the world's major economies, including the ASEAN-China FTA. We have also ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership or CPTPP as of last year, eliminating more than 90% of tariffs for our exports to all CPTPP markets. With clear economic benefits afforded to the ASEAN markets, we can very visibly see an added incentive to preserving the security and by extension, the stability of the region.

Other ASEAN Member States have also prospered as a result of the peace and stability in the region. Would we want to give this up? We are able to achieve this because our pioneering leaders had the foresight to set aside differences and deepen mutual trust. Imagine if they had not done so. They realise that tensions and mistrust will hamper growth as investors will stay away from unstable regions.

New Threats on the Horizon

Following the relative stability and economic prosperity during the first five decades following WWII, the September 11 attack shook the world, and revealed how quickly global threats have evolved, and how security that is vital to our region can be threatened by these new threats. While threats had previously been conventional and visible, it could now come in various shapes and forms, in this case specifically Islamic Radicalisation in Southeast Asia. To state an example, radicalised threats in the region first bore the face of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), a homegrown Southeast Asian terrorist organisation affiliated to Al-Qaeda, and now counts amongst its numbers the Islamic State (IS), who have claimed responsibility for attacks all over the globe. The IS has demonstrated a resolve to root themselves in the region and conduct recruitment and attacks regionally, while the war on terrorism in other countries is far from over. We see the long reach of transnational terrorism from the attacks in Boston in 2013, Paris in 2015, Indonesia in 2018, and Sri Lanka in 2019. More recently, the attack on Police Headquarters in Indonesia by a 22 year old attacker is a stark reminder that the threat remains real and relevant and can be carried out by one single individual.

Other worrying aspects of terrorism include the return of foreign fighters to the region, and the radicalisation of our young. Many Southeast Asians have been reported to have travelled to Syria and Iraq. Some would have perished during the fight while others may return to the region after the ceding of territory control by terrorists in the Middle-East. SEA is faced with a delicate situation that requires balance between the "hard" approaches of containment and isolation of potential threats, and the "soft" approaches that focus on the rehabilitation and reintegration of these radicalised individuals into society. An imbalance of policy towards either direction could have severe implications, as an overly "hard" approach could entrench these individuals in their radicalised thoughts, while an overly "soft" approach is resource-intensive and unsustainable without strong government funding.

The increasing trend of younger radicalised citizens can be attributed largely to the advent of social media and technology. With the ease and convenience of the internet and social media platforms, extremist materials and recruiters have unparalleled access to an entire range of vulnerable and impressionable youths. It is thus crucial for countries to establish both safeguards against the spread of extremist and false teachings, as well as rehabilitation avenues for those who may have already been influenced. For example, Singapore established the Religious Rehabilitation Group in 2003, in order to combat this threat as well as provide support and assistance to these individuals.

A VUCA World and the need for Enhanced Cooperation

You may have heard of VUCA, a VUCA world that needs to enhance cooperation. What does VUCA stand for? - V for Volatile, U for Uncertain, C for Complex, and A for Ambiguous. So this volatile, uncertain, complex and ambigious world -These are all words used to describe the world we live in, due to the dynamic and rapid changes that occur around us. This fast-paced nature of developments necessitates a high level of mutual trust and communication in order for countries to tackle new issues and developments that could threaten our shared peace and stability. The establishment of a rule-based system is also crucial for providing clarity and swift decision-making in chaotic situations. The vital nature of cooperation within and beyond the region cannot be stressed enough. The sharing of information to thwart terrorist plots, close partnerships and cooperation has proven time and time again to be essential.

Regional Peace and Security

For example, we need to focus on regional peace and security, yet even more important today. After the Second World War, the Five Power Defence Arrangement (FPDA) was established in 1971, consisting of the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, and Singapore. The FPDA would regularly conduct military exercises to enhance mutual understanding and interoperability of their forces, the FPDA was first of many similar partnerships to come, and I'm glad to share that the FPDA is still going strong today. The recent successful conclusion of Exercise Bersama Lima, under the FPDA, involved more than 3,000 military personnel operating assets from the land, sea and air.

On a regional level, ASEAN nations also conduct military exercises together frequently, and engage in high level discussions through the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM). The inaugural ASEAN Defence Ministerial Meeting (ADMM) was held in Kuala Lumpur on 9 May 2006. As the highest defence consultative and cooperative mechanism in ASEAN, ADMM aims to promote mutual trust and confidence through greater understanding of defence and security challenges as well as enhancement of transparency and openness. The ADMM-Plus was then conceptualised and convened in order to further the goals of the ADMM, and strengthen partnership within the region. The eight Plus partners are Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, ROK, Russian Federation, and the United States.

Building a Rules-Based System: Marine

The recent partnerships facilitated by ASEAN include the conduct of the very first ASEAN-China Maritime Exercise in 2018, where navies that participated agreed to practise the Code of Unplanned Encounters at Sea, or CUES in short. This is a practical confidence-building measure that builds trust. In other words, if you meet another ship at sea that you did not expect to meet, both sides know what to do in order to reduce the chance of incidents spiraling into conflict in the event of miscalculation. This year, ASEAN also conducted its inaugural maritime exercise with the US. At the ASEAN-US maritime exercise, ASEAN and US navies practised a series of maritime security drills to strengthen practical cooperation and build confidence.

Building a Rules-Based System: Airspace

So just as we have done on the seas, we have also done in the air. At last year's ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM)-Plus, the ten ASEAN countries agreed to adopt the world's first multilateral Guidelines for Air Military Encounters, or GAME for short. Additionally, the eight Plus partners were in-principle supportive and are studying the adoption of the guidelines for themselves. So you can see how ASEAN collaborated at the military domain too, to ensure safe encounters at seas and in the air. Envisioned and constructed to improve the operational safety of our air lanes, GAME applies to unplanned encounters between military aircraft, and describes the need for communicating appropriately, maintaining a safe distance and avoiding reckless manoeuvres.

Tackling Cyber Risks

One other area in which cooperation between countries is undoubtedly crucial is the cyber domain, which has taken on increasing importance and priority in both military and economic domains. The ASEAN-Singapore Cybersecurity Centre of Excellence serves as a valuable platform for the region to collectively strengthen our cyber systems, and was formed in large as a response to the rise in cyber-attacks across the world. With cyber threats taking the forms of cyber-terrorism, identity theft, and fraud, there is a pressing need to prevent cyber threats from undermining our cyber domain. Victims range from individuals and companies being phished, to government bodies losing sensitive information as a result of hacking. With the ease of access to cyber platforms and proliferation of cyber weapons, the emerging challenge involved a dilution of traditional power, where non-state actors can present non-kinetic threats, and are harder to detect or apprehend.

Importance of Bridge-building

However, it must be stressed that these international partnerships and the resulting bridge-building are only possible through the establishment of rule-based systems, such as CUES and GAME. Beyond just ensuring the safety of sea and air traffic in this part of the world, these positive developments give us strong encouragement that it is possible to deal with more difficult issues if we set our minds and build trust at every level. Practical cooperation and frameworks foster basic levels of trust, which can then promote open dialogue at a higher strategic level. When this happens, we can then unlock more opportunities for future cooperation and eventually put in place real and effective solutions to the most pressing challenges of the day, rather than glossing over and thinking that they will all go away on their own.

In fact, we must seek win-win solutions always, because the best way forward in a VUCA world is to embrace integration and agree upon the necessary rules so that everyone wins together. So I believe that the magic formula to the path of peace and security lies in cooperation and collaboration, facilitated by a rules-based system.

Conclusion

A Call for International Friendship and Cooperation amongst the Youths

So, as the world becomes increasingly flatter, international cooperation has also become increasingly vital to our security and stability, and our citizens' welfare and interests. With that, I urge you young officers and cadets to forge strong and lasting friendships with one another through this international platform, seeding the foundation of a long-term collaborative spirit to collectively make the region and the world a safer and more secured place for us to live in. I look forward to engaging you in the conversations. Thank you.