The Awakening Dragon
by CPT Steven Tan Boon Heng

Introduction

The 2lst century is much touted as the Asia-Pacific century. The region has been the largest economic growth area of the world for the past decade, and with the rise of China, the region is poised to become the economic powerhouse of the next century. Given China's sheer size and resources, her growth potential is undeniable and there are already predictions that China's economy will equal if not overtake that of America by the year 2020.¹

History has proven time and again that there is a cycle in the rise and fall of the affairs of Man and States. Europe and Britain have seen their days of glory, and the 20th century is widely regarded as the American century.² Will the 21 st century then be the Asia-Pacific century, with China catching up with and leading the pack of Asian tigers?³ Or will the rise of China cause a showdown between herself and the USA, leading to tensions and uncertainties in the region resulting in lost opportunities for growth and prosperity?

As Shakespeare puts it, "there is a tide in the affairs of man, which, taken at its flood leads on to fortune, omitted, all the voyage of their life, is bound in shallows and in miseries."⁴ Will China then seize her newly found opportunities and capitalise on them, bringing prosperity both to her people and the region, or will she seek a path of hegemony leading to disruption and perhaps even destruction to the growth potential of the region?

This essay will examine and discuss the rise of China in recent years both economically and militarily. The implications of China's rise to the region will be discussed, and it will be shown that China will contribute to rather than hinder the growth of the region. The economic aspect will be discussed first, and it will be argued that China will play by the rules in order to ensure that her economic growth will not be hampered. Next, the military aspect will be examined, in particular the navy's rise will be discussed, and it will be proposed that China's military will not be a destabilising force in the region. Finally, it will be concluded that a strong China will do more good rather than harm to the Asia-Pacific region.

Economic Rise of China and its Implications

China has seen phenomenal growth in her economy after the late paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping steered her on a course of free market reforms in the late seventies. Starting with the coastal regions, special economic zones were created and a self-styled free-market socialism was embraced by Beijing. Denying a switch to capitalism openly yet wishing to reap its profits, Beijing is seeking the best of capitalism and socialism.

Beijing watched with wariness and horror as the Soviet Union collapsed in the late eighties. Though not the very best of allies, Moscow and Beijing have always stood against the West and capitalism. With the lessons drawn from the Soviet experience, Chinese leaders are determined not to lose their grip on the country.

When then Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, introduced Glasnost⁵ and Perestroika⁶ into the Soviet Union, he did not envisage that it would hasten the demise of the Soviet empire. Western leaders applauded when Gorbachev pushed for reforms in his country, and they certainly did when the Soviet Union fell apart. That is the reason why Beijing is always suspicious and wary of the true intentions of the West. Beijing is skeptical and hostile whenever there are attacks on her human rights record and calls for more openness in China by the West.

The mistake Gorbachev made was that he introduced Glasnost before pushing through Perestroika.⁷ In giving freedom of thought and speech to his people before introducing economic reforms, Gorbachev gave room for an uprising that resulted from displeasure and unhappiness over the economic and social conditions. Put in simple language, hungry people have no energy and time for higher thoughts. The hierarchy of needs have to be met from the basic ones,⁸ and Gorbachev ushered in the collapse of the Soviet empire when he went against that hierarchy.

With the benefit of having the Soviet mistake as reference, Beijing is determined to retain control over the country while introducing economic reforms. As mentioned earlier, Beijing is trying to have the best of both capitalism and socialism. This explains why Beijing frowns on and would not hesitate to curb dissent while promoting economic reforms at the same time. The West is against this, and Beijing sees every step taken by America to promote human rights as part of a larger plan to destabilise the country.

Asian countries take a very different view towards China. Asian countries, in particular ASEAN countries, take the view that the only way to open up China is through people-to-people interaction brought about by economic activities and exchanges. With wealth and mobility brought about by economic growth, Chinese people will travel more and interact with the outside world. Seeing the benefits of capitalism with their own eyes will set in a desire for change and reform, and as more and more Chinese acquire this desire, reform will eventually take place in China even though it may be a long process.

Beijing is aware of the price she has to pay for economic growth, but she is more comfortable with this gradual change than the drastic switch to democracy that America has been advocating and championing all this while. The Clinton administration has realised that and this is shown by the recent change in America's China policy from one of containment to constructive engagement.⁹ Not linking China's Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) status to human rights issue is a step in this direction, and this has reduced the possibility of a clash between the two giants.

Having dispelled what she views as external attempts to destabilise China, Beijing looks set on a course of economic reform that will contribute to the growth of the Asia Pacific region. Beijing is seeking entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and this signals that she is willing to abide by the international rules of trade and commerce,albeit with special concessions in view of her developing status. America should welcome this move and try to integrate China's economy with the world's. There is more for America to gain than to lose by engaging China positively.

Up to World War II, wars were fought primarily for economic reasons,10 and the Clausewitzian theory of war seemed to hold true up till the middle of the 20th century. After World War II, the world was divided into two ideological camps. A modified form of Clausewitzian theory held true and wars were waged over ideological differences, even though such reasons were often fronts for expanding the participants' spheres of influence and ultimately their national interests. However, with the end of the Cold War, wars are being fought more for ethnic and religious reasons than anything else. The Clausewitzian theory no longer holds true as countries have calculated and realised that there is more to lose than to gain by going to war.

There is a school of thought that holds that as countries trade and open their markets up to foreign investors, their economies will become integrated and interdependent on one another.¹¹ This inter-dependence will reduce the tendency for countries to resort to war to settle their differences. Arbitration and other peaceful forms of solutions will become the preferred mode of operation.

America's recent switch of policy towards China is in line with the abovementioned school of thought. By seeking to actively trade with China and trying to penetrate into her markets, America is hoping to bring about this inter-dependency on Beijing. Asean countries are already actively investing in China, and Japan has recently taken a stake too, by investing in the multi-billion dollar "Three Gorges Dam" project in China.

All these economic interactions and activities will serve not only to make war too costly for Beijing to contemplate, social reform will also take place as a result of the increased presence of foreigners in China. It will only be a matter of time before a whole generation of "reformed-leaders" grow up to lead the country.

This augurs well for the Asia-Pacific region and the world because an unstable and divided China will not be able to sustain growth in her country, much less contribute to the growth and prosperity of the region. A stable and strong China will do more good to the region and the world. The West's purpose will be served if they remain patient and wait for China to be reformed from internally and not externally.

There are already signs of unrest and secessionist movements in China and if Beijing does not handle these problems well, an internal break-up could occur and it could precipitate the fall of the country. Controlling the widening income gap between city dwellers and peasants is one pressing problem the Chinese government has to tackle, and keeping the secessionist movement of Muslims in Xinjiang Province under control is also an urgent task. Tibet and Taiwan are also potential trouble spots for Beijing, and the world is monitoring closely how Hong Kong will fare after she reverts to Chinese sovereignty.

China has realised that the only way to become a power of consequence is through reforming her economy and attracting foreign investments. In order to sustain her rate of economic growth, Beijing will continue to woo foreign investors and stick by international rules to promote trade and commerce with other countries. With all that is at stake, Beijing is more inclined to choose a path of consultation rather than confrontation with the West and the world. She has more to lose than to gain by going against the international community.

However, Beijing is not about to sacrifice sovereignty in the name of growth. The West, in particular America, should realise this and compromise accordingly. America has already taken steps in this direction by the recent change in policy towards China. America should also understand that a stable and unified China will be essential to the stability and growth of the Asia-Pacific region. America will contribute towards this cause by allowing reform to take place in China by itself and not try to inject or interfere in any manner.

The new leadership under Chinese President Jiang Zemin has indicated they will continue the reforms started by the late Deng.¹² With a new team of players in the game who understand how much they stand to lose if they flout the rules, China looks set on a path of free market socialism that will power her to the forefront in the 21st century. Barring any outbreak of war on the Korean peninsula, the Asian tigers together with China look poised to declare the 21st century that of the Asia-Pacific's.

Military Rise of China and its Implications

With the growth brought about by the economic reforms, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is set on a path of modernisation and hardware acquisition. The navy has in recent years started a programme of transforming its defence capabilities from one of coastal defence (Jin'an Fanyu) to offshore defence (Jinhai Fangyu), with the ultimate aim of building a blue water navy or ocean defence (Yanghai Fangyu) capable navy.¹³ This is indicated by then navy commander Admiral Zhang Lianzhong, who pointed out that, "in order to effectively defend China against attacks from the sea, it is necessary to extend the depth of defence into the oceans and to have a naval capability of intercepting and destroying the enemy."¹⁴

The importance that Beijing places on sea power can be seen by the fact that a current estimate of the Chinese navy's share of the defence budget is between 10 and 15 percent.¹⁵ This is despite the fact that the navy numbers only about 340,000, roughly about 10 percent of the total armed forces. The allocations to naval funds are increasing yearly, and there are constant reports of China trying to acquire aircraft carriers besides other force-projection capable weapon systems.

"Chinese rulers have been historically ambivalent about the importance of the sea. The occasions when attention was paid to maritime matters, most notably in the 15th century, were rare exceptions to a narrow continentalist outlook."¹⁶ Historically, China has always taken the approach of a land-based power, preoccupied mainly with her own internal problems and trying to protect her borders from barbarian attacks. This is best exemplified by the erection of the Great Wall.

It was only in the middle of the 19th century that Chinese leaders realised the importance of having a navy when they lost a series of battles at sea, most notably to the British in the Opium War of 1839-42 and the Sino-Japanese War at the end of the century. The inability of China to prevent foreign invasion brought about the collapse of the Imperial system.¹⁷

These events are often quoted to justify Beijing's rush to modernise her navy. Admiral Zhang Lianzhong said in 1988 that "we will never forget that China was invaded seven times by imperialist troops from the sea. The nation's suffering due to a lack of sea defence still remains fresh in our minds, and history must not repeat itself."¹⁸ Thus, with her newly acquired wealth, Beijing is set on a course of revamping and upgrading her navy, with the ultimate aim of having a forward force-projection capable force.

Beijing has stated that the PLA is to "assist in the country's economic development."¹⁹ The navy's role is to defend the sea lines of communication (SLOC) that China's growing seaborne trade is dependent on. The navy is also tasked to defend China's territorial rights and claims in the surrounding sea areas. Beijing claims up to three million square kilometres of maritime territory, and has asserted that about one million square kilometres of this territory is being illegally exploited by other countries.²⁰

The Spratlys and Diaoyudao are two island groups that China is in contention with other countries. In 1974, the Chinese navy saw action when it took the Paracels from Vietnamese troops, and Beijing is still in tussle with Hanoi over the Spratlys after a brief naval skirmish in the late eighties.

There have been numerous reports that Beijing is trying fill in the power vacuum created by the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Vietnam and American forces from the Philippines. A much-quoted example is the conduct of live-firing of missiles and other major exercises in the Strait of Taiwan by Beijing during Taiwan's first Presidential elections in early 1996.

However, that provocative act brought two battle carrier groups of the United States Navy (USN) into the region, and it underscored Washington's commitment to the stability of the Asia-Pacific region. Ever since that incident, naval analysts in Beijing have taken a different posture towards the outright use of force.

The new leader of China, President Jiang Zemin, was always reported as not having full control of the military because he did not rise through its ranks. However, immediately after the death of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, military leaders have pledged their allegiance and support for President Jiang. This is a big change in the PLA's posture as the exercises conducted in the Taiwan Strait were reported to be carried out upon the generals' insistence despite JiangÕs disapproval. The military was reported to be frustrated with Jiang's lack of force shown towards Taiwan's pro-independence moves. Jiang's approach appeared too weak for them to follow.

The hardline approach of the PLA did nothing to solve the Taiwan problem but aggravated it further by getting the Americans involved. Having given in to the generals and proven them wrong, Jiang has now won the PLA to his side.

Beijing is less likely to exercise the military option to solve conflicts in the foreseeable future now that the PLA is under civilian control. Economic development is top on the priority list of Beijing right now and she has realised that any provocative act on her part could bring damaging economic sanctions. Any aggressive move on her part will scare away foreign investors and only revert her back to the days of unproductivity and suffering. Having given the people a taste of what economic development holds, the political backlash back home will be very great if Beijing embarks on a path of military adventurism that will lead to international sanctions and isolation.

Having said all of that, it is necessary to note however, that Beijing will not hesitate to resort to military force if her sovereignty is challenged. In the case of the Spratlys, Beijing has offered to put aside the issue of sovereignty for the time being and has proposed harnessing the resources of the area jointly with the parties concerned. In the case of Tibet and Xinjiang, no compromise is seen. Taiwan has a special consideration and the way Beijing handles Hong Kong afters she reverts to Chinese control will indicate how the Taiwan issue will be solved eventually. The West's dealings and relations with Beijing will improve greatly if they understand her stance on sovereignty issues.

China aims to be a regional power but her present priority is on economic development. The PLA and the navy are instruments towards this aim, and although modernisation is taking place at a fast rate, Beijing is not ready to sacrifice her economic growth for any military adventurism. The military has been brought under control and for the foreseeable future, peaceful means will be the preferred form of solving problems.

Conclusion

China has adopted free market reforms and termed it as Chinese self-styled socialism. With the Soviet Union's collapse still fresh in mind, Beijing is not about to sacrifice sovereignty and central command in the name of reform. On the contrary, she is seeking the best of communist socialism and capitalism.

The PLA and the Chinese navy are on a modernisation programme but they have been brought under civilian control and their main role is to contribute to the economic development of the country. Military adventurism has been ruled out and even though Beijing aspires to fill in the power vacuum in Asia created by the end of the Cold War, she has realised that any provocative move on her part will only result in international sanctions and isolation. The political price to pay at home may just be too high for Beijing.

In conclusion, China, growing at a phenomenal rate and looking set to be the economic powerhouse of Asia in the 21st century, is taking a path that will ensure her own growth and development. This augurs well for the Asia-Pacific region as a stable and strong China will contribute to investors' confidence in the region, and this will propel the region into the forefront of the 21st century. The awakening dragon looks like it is ready to bring prosperity and blessings to the people of China.

Endnotes

1 Global Prospects and the Developing Countries, 1993, World Bank, Washington D.C.

2 Paul Kennedy. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, New York, Fontana Press 1988

3 The Asian tigers refers to the robust economies of Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea. These countries have high GNPs and enjoy high growth rates.

4 William Shakespeare. Julius Caesar, London, Oxford Press, 1984. Quoted by Brutus.

5 Glasnost is Russian for freedom of thought.

6 Prestroika is Russian for reform and change.

7 Mikhail Gorbachev. Memoirs, Germany, Doubleday, 1995.

8 Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs states that basic needs like hunger and security have to be met before
secondary needs like sense of self-worth and recognition.

9 The Strait Times, "US Policies on China are on the Right Track", Comments/Analysis, pp 52, 14 March 1997.

10 Samuel P. Huntington. The Clash of Civilisations and the Remaking of World Order, New York, Simon & Schuster 1996

11 ibid.

12 The Straits Times, pp 1, 12 March 1997.

13 Tai Ming Cheung. Growth of Chinese Naval Power, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1990.

14 "Interview with Navy Commander Zhang Lianzhong", PD ( Overseas Edition), 1 August 1988.

15 Interviews with Chinese military economists and Western defence analysts, Beijing, August 1989.

16 The first Ming Emperor, Zhu Yuanzhang, ordered a number of expeditions to Southeast and Northeast Asia. See Bruce Swanson, Eighth Voyage of the Dragon, United States Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, Maryland, 1982.

17 John L. Rawlinson. China's Struggle for Naval Development, 1839-1895, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1967.

18 Sen Shugen. "An Interview with Chinese PLA Navy Commander Zhang Lianzhong", Junshi Shijie [Military World 1), no. 2 ( Sept. - Oct. 1988).

19 Zhou Aiqun. "The Soviet Union Adjusts its Military Strategy", Shijie Zhishi, in FBIS/China, 14 May 1990.

20 Yi Yuanqiu & Wang Zhuanyou. "Establish Strong Border Defence Thinking", LAD, 6 October 1989.

Bibliography

1. Samuel P. Huntington. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, New York, Simon & Schuster, 1996.

2. Paul Kennedy. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, New York, Fontana Press, 1988.

3. Paul Kennedy. The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery, New York, Fontana Press, 1991.

4. Mikhail Gorbachev. Memoirs, Germany, Doubleday, 1995.

5. David S.G. Goodman. Deng Xiaoping and the Chinese Revolution: A Political Biography, London, Routledge, 1994.

6. Harrison E. Salisbury. The New Emperors: Mao and Deng, A Dual Biography, London, Harper Collins, 1993.

7. M.S. Dobbs Higginson. Asia Pacific - Its Role in the New World Order, Australia, Mandarin, 1996.

CPT STEVEN TAN BOON HENG graduated from the National Defence Academy of Japan in 1995 with a B.Eng degree (1st Class Hons). CPT Tan's last appoinment was with the 188 Sqn; he is currently on course.